49ers-Packers: Players to watch
While it'sonly the second preseason game of the season, it's also already the second game of the preseason. The first team offense and defense will get a half of play under the belt. The Packers finished last season 17th against the pass and 8th against the run. Not spectacular against the pass, but Al Harris and Charles Woodson are definitely nothing to sneeze at. Suffice to say, the 49ers offense will face a stiff challenge by ground and by air.
On the other hand, the Packers offense was 5th in the air and 9th on the ground. I'm not sure how the passing game will translate under Aaron Rodgers, but Ryan Grant is back running the ball, looking to build on an impressive 2007. After getting thrashed by the Raiders running game, the 49ers will be looking to bounce back and put up a slightly stiffer front (that's what she said). Although, I just checked Acme Packing Company, and it looks like Grant might be out. If so, even more reason to do a better job against the run.
August 26 is the first cut-down date (to 75 players) and some positional battles are heating up, both for roster spots and for depth chart rotation.
Josh Morgan - We've talked plenty about the rookie receiver from Virginia Tech. However, this is a particularly interesting matchup because of the corners he'll be facing. Due to injuries, Morgan will be in the starting lineup. This means a chance to square off against Charles Woodson or Al Harris. This will be a big test for the rookie (as well as J.T. O'Sullivan). You never want to get too excited after just one good performance in the preseason. However, if Morgan can put up a second good performance against a Pro Bowl-caliber cornerback, I think it's safe to say Fooch will be getting more excited (first ever reference to myself in the 3rd person I think).
Louis Holmes - Holmes has been getting more and more press as he seems to be impressing during practice, even getting some first team reps. However, he now finds himself in a potential numbers crunch, competing with Tully Banta-Cain, Roderick Green and Jay Moore. Barrows had some interesting comments about the four players:
Holmes, who has shown real promise as a pass rusher, is an obvious practice-squad candidate, but the 49ers would risk him being plucked off it by a team with room on its active roster. Banta-Cain disappointed last year with just 3.5 sacks, but he is the most versatile of the bunch and there's a sense that he'll be more effective in a reserve role just as he was in New England. Green has been perhaps the best pass rusher of this latter group. But his versatility is limited and the 49ers know (from history) there's little risk in cutting him and bringing him back midseason if need be. Moore, meanwhile, hasn't shown much of a pass rush and is still very much in learning mode when it comes to coverage duties. He is practice-squad eligible.
I would like to see Jay Moore make the roster, but I'm feeling more and more like he will end up on the practice squad. Holmes sounds motivated to make the roster, but the numbers crunch might get in the way. If he can make some noise against the Packers, maybe he can force the situation.
Keith Lewis - Up to this point I considered Lewis pretty secure in his roster spot. Barrows mentioned today that he thinks one of the final defensive backs could come down to either Lewis or Marcus Hudson. In comparing the two, Barrows said Lewis's strengths being special teams place and solid backup play at strong safety, while his main weakness is a lack of speed and versatility. Hudson, on the other hand, has less experience but more versatility in the secondary and is showing some special teams spark. I'm not sure how strong a performance Lewis would need to secure his spot, but it'd be interesting to see which way the 49ers go. Lewis has always been an under the radar guy, but considering he led the team in special teams tackles in 2007, he might be worth keeping around.
The team still has the Packers game and next Thursday's matchup at Chicago (along with several more practices) before the 75-man cut down date. The third preseason game is usually where the starters go upwards of 3 quarters, so backups need to make things happen sooner rather than later.
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Projecting the 49ers 53-man roster #2
Two months ago we ran a little exercise of projecting the 53-man roster. Since that time, enough has changed to allow us the chance to revise our projections. If you've had a chance to check out Mike Sandos NFC West blog, he went through each team and gave roster analysis at all of the units (since updated with some of the 49ers injury and roster moves). Feel free to throw out any disagreements you have with some of my projections. I've bolded and underlined additions and will mention subtractions down below.
Offense
QB (3): Alex Smith, Shaun Hill, J.T. O'Sullivan
RB (3): Frank Gore, DeShaun Foster, Michael Robinson
FB (2): Moran Norris, Zak Keasey
WR (5): Isaac Bruce, Bryant Johnson, Arnaz Battle, Jason Hill, Josh Morgan
TE (3): Vernon Davis, Delanie Walker, Billy Bajema
LT (2): Joe Staley, Barry Sims
LG (2): Adam Snyder, Tony Wragge
C (2): Eric Heitmann, Cody Wallace
RG (2): David Baas, Chilo Rachal
RT (1): Jonas Jennings
Defense
DE (4): Isaac Sopoaga, Justin Smith, Kentwan Balmer, Ray McDonald
DT (2): Aubrayo Franklin, Ronald Fields
OLB (3): Manny Lawson, Tully Banta-Cain, Parys Haralson
ILB (5): Patrick Willis, Jeff Ulbrich, Dontarrious Thomas, Takeo Spikes, Larry Grant
CB (6): Nate Clements, Walt Harris, Shawntae Spencer, Tarell Brown, Donald Strickland, Reggie Smith
FS (2): Mark Roman, Dashon Goldson
SS (2): Michael Lewis, Keith Lewis
Special Teams
K: Joe Nedney
P: Andy Lee
LS: Brian Jennings
KR/PR: Allen Rossum
Changes
I made three changes, and only one of them is my own judgment call. Damane Duckett was placed on injured reserve and Sims is looking like a sure bet to make the team. Spikes is clearly in to replace Brandon Moore, so no surprises there.
The only "big change" I made was to plug in Zak Keasey and take off Ashley Lelie. It sounds like Lelie might miss another week, which puts him that much further behind. Couple that with the continued emergence of Josh Morgan and Lelie has to be considered on thin ice. Keasey has received a lot of playing time with the first team offense and got into quite a bit of action on Friday. The other option is keeping Keasey and dumping Moran Norris. I'm curious what people think about the fullback situation, even if it isn't the most glamorous of positions.
The Bubble
As roster spots become more secure, the questions becomes who remains on the bubble? Jay Moore made some plays (including a sack) last Friday and definitely helped himself. At the same time, Mike Nolan specifically said that while he'd done some positive things, he wasn't going to get bumped up because he still had areas to improve. While Tully Banta-Cain looked solid, I could certainly see him battling Moore and Roderick Green for a roster spot. However, I think TBC is the likely winner in that battle. I'm curious if Moore would eventually find himself on the practice squad.
I think Ashley Lelie is not necessarily on the bubble, so much as in some kind of purgatory. If he doesn't get healthy I don't see how he doesn't get cut. Josh Morgan certainly has room to improve, but if he keeps it up at this pace he's certainly not going to lose his spot to Lelie. A final addition to the bubble would be Louis Holmes. It sounds like he's been really impressing folks, although it's an uphill battle for him to make the 53-man roster.
Alright, anybody I'm overlooking or over-rating? I'm pretty sure most of us are praying for a whole lot of answers this Saturday against Green Bay. While there are bubble players, the questions are more related to the depth chart of the existing roster. A guy like Moore or Holmes will definitely need to step up their game Saturday night.
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The 49ers Anti-Starting Lineup
Last season I signed up for text message updates from the 49ers and I have to say, some of the time I'm receiving them before seeing anything online. Being in the slow days of June, not a whole lot is going on so not too many messages. However, early yesterday afternoon I learned that the 49ers had successfully claimed QB Kyle Wright off waivers from the Vikings and waived QB Drew Olson.
Considering the quarterbacks already in camp, I'd be shocked if Wright was on the roster at the end of August. At the same time, Wright could be a prime candidate for the practice squad. Drew Olson actually spent a small part of the season on the practice squad. In the meantime, the claim of Wright has inspired me. The 49ers currently have 81 players on their roster, including unsigned draft picks. Just for sh$#s and giggles I thought I'd put together the "worst starting lineup possible." All of these players are certainly world class athletes, but many of them are not starter quality.
OFFENSE
QB: Kyle Wright - He was ok for the U last season but definitely the worst option.
RB: Michael Robinson - Robinson brings a lot to the table, but I'm convinced Thomas Clayton is a better pure running back. We're not factoring in potential special teams contributions either.
WR: Dominque Ziegler & Jerard Rabb - I actually like most of the 49ers less wide receivers, especially Robert Jordan. Ziegler has struggled with injuries problems and Rabb was the 1A banana at Boise State in 2006 (he was the guy who caught the lateral and tied the game).
TE: Cooper Wallace - At least JJ Finley is a rookie and put up better college numbers. Wallace has been in the NFL a couple years and hasn't made a big impact yet. I'd imagine he's coming to the end of the road pretty soon.
OT: Damane Duckett & Alan Reuber - Duckett is a pet project of Nolan and considering he's never actually played in a game as a tackle. Reuber has been around since 2004 and has seen scattered action during that time.
C: Cody Wallace - Not exactly an inspired pick. I'm tempted to just see Wallace starting over Heitmann, but this is more a default pick since the 49ers only have a pair of centers.
OG: Brian De La Puente & Jeb Terry - Terry has been around the league for a few years and seen some action mostly on special teams. De La Puente is a rookie out of Cal and I wouldn't mind seeing him on the practice squad.
DEFENSE
DE: Atiyyah Ellison & Louis Holmes - Ellison joins the running theme of practice squad bodies on this squad. Louis Holmes is an undrafted free agent, so it's certainly too early to tell what he brings to the table.
DT: Walter Curry - LaJuan Ramsey was battling for this spot, but Ramsey has actually registered real NFL statistics. Curry was an undrafted free agent in 2005 and has bounced from practice squads to NFL Europe and back.
OLB: Roderick Green & Parys Haralson - The linebacker positions show you the deth the 49ers have. Green and Haralson are probably not starting caliber (at least for the 49ers), but they provide quality depth
ILB: Dennis Haley & Larry Grant - As seen in the outside linebackers, inside linebacker would also be a strength of this particular team. Grant is a favorite of mine, so we'll see how he looks in training camp.
CB: Markus Curry & Marcus Hudson - Curry has bounced around practice squads since 2005 and I'd imagine he'd be an early cut in training camp. The second CB spot was tough. Tarell Brown brings way too much upside and Strickland gets a pass thanks to his huge defensive play against the Cardinals. Reggie Smith is too green to be considered here so that leaves "veteran" Marcus Hudson.
FS: Lewis Baker - He's an undrafted free agent with some potential, but I certainly don't see sticking Mark Roman or Dashon Goldson in this spot.
SS: DJ Parker - Similar to Baker above, I don't see sticking Michael Lewis or Keith Lewis in this spot.
There's a back-up punter but that would just be ridiculous to talk about. Of course considering I just did an analysis of the bottom end of the roster pool, maybe I should have included Ricky Schmitt. I'd imagine this team would probably go 0-16. Although, I definitely think this would make for an impressive college team. So, would this team be able to win at the NFL level? Considering we're playing Miami this year, it's entirely possible 1-15 is a better bet.
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Just for the heck of it: 49ers 2009 free agents
In the Delanie Walker signing post, MM threw out the players who will be free agents after 2009. Obviously a million things will change between now and then and there is little to no way we can predict what will happen at that point. However, it's much more fun randomly speculating about things over which we have absolutely no control. Some are restricted free agents, although I'm not 100% sure about the restricted/unrestricted status of some of them. The entire list is at the bottom, but I thought I'd hit some of the more interesting ones. The 49ers have done a good job lately in signing the young talent to longer deals. On this list, aside from Bryant Johnson, I'm not sure if any of them warrant long term deals for now.
Billy Bajema: Bajema is a blocking tight end who is not exactly what you'd call a pass catcher. Delanie Walker has been impressing Mike Martz, but Bajema brings the blocking element Walker lacks. I don't see Bajema returning when you can probably find a replacement in the draft.
Damane Duckett: While he seems to be a "coach's project," Duckett is an interesting case. It's entirely possible the signing of Barry Sims means Duckett doesn't make the roster this year. Even if he does it will be as a backup and barring injury, I don't know how much of an opportunity he'll get to play behind Joe Staley. Of course I also don't know who else would be interested in a converted defensive lineman who hasn't gotten all that much playing time.
DeShaun Foster: I could definitely see this as a one and done year for Foster. If he can put together a solid year behind a really good running back like Gore, he would definitely get some quality offers. He just needs to show he can stay healthy and be relatively productive. A solid yards per carry could help him cash in.
Bryant Johnson: According to MM, "There is no question Johnson is hungry to prove he's an elite wideout. Johnson said he wants to put together a good season and sign a long-term extension with the 49ers." If Johnson does take a step up and prove himself to be a quality receiver, we'll see how quick he is to sign an extension when teams are throwing piles of money at him.
Eric Heitmann: I'd imagine the 49ers will let him walk. They have some options for the future, which makes Heitmann potentially expendable. Tony Wragge is a restricted free agent and unless somebody was willing to give up picks and a big contract for him, I'd imagine the 49ers could retain him pretty easily. Cody Wallace would seem to be the center of the future, so it's a matter of working him in to the position. Or maybe Heitmann signs a short deal to groom Wallace? No matter what he won't be getting a ton of money from the 49ers.
Ronald Fields: If the 49ers stick with the 3-4, Fields has his work cut out for him if he plans on sticking around. He's a defensive tackle who either needs to improve his game in the middle, or gain some ability and become a defensive end. He hasn't done a whole lot up to this point and the 49ers have brought in some additional young bodies so we'll see how this year plays out.
Ashley Lelie: After spending most of last season in just about everybody's doghouse, Lelie thinks he's learned enough to be able to make some solid contributions in 2008. The 49ers and Mike Martz will need every wide receiver to step up and make things happen. However, unless Lelie blows people away, the 49ers have enough young potential to take their chances with another cheap veteran in free agency who might have a little more upside.
Signed through 2008: TE Billy Bajema, T Damane Duckett, DL Atiyyah Ellison, DL Ronald Fields, RB DeShaun Foster, OLB Roderick Green, C Eric Heitmann, WR Bryant Johnson, FB Zak Keasey, WR Ashley Lelie, QB J.T. O'Sullivan, RS Allen Rossum, CB Donald Strickland, G Tony Wragge.
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49ers Roster Bubble Watch: Jay Moore
After putting together a 53-man roster and practice squad projection, the next step is looking at the specific players that are battling for the final few spots on the 49ers roster. This first one is probably not as difficult a choice as some of the ones to come in the next few weeks. "My Boy" Jay Moore was drafted as a defensive end with the intention of moving him to outside linebacker. The experiment was cut short when Moore went down with a high ankle sprain that ended up putting him on injured reserve for the season. One could argue that was beneficial for Moore as he was able to spend the entire season learning what it takes to play outside linebacker. You never want to see a player lose a season to injury, but if it's going to happen, it might as well be when you're still learning to play a new position. You learn most on the field, but being able to observe has it's positives.
Way back in January of 2007 I got a scouting report on Moore from Corn Nation, the Nebraska blog for SB Nation. The big problem for Moore heading into the draft was his size. He was too small to be a traditional down lineman, but too big to be a linebacker. The 49ers picked him up with the intention of converting him to OLB, in part because he brought solid speed to the table. It's hard to make any predictions about his performance because his only NFL playing time was last preseason. Furthermore, we still don't have a complete idea of how he will contribute. Over at sf49ers.com, there was an article today in which they discussed the injury and what to expect this coming season. After looking this over, it sounds like he'll play a role somewhat similar to new 49er Justin Smith:
With the ankle healed, Moore shifted his focus from rehab to losing a good amount of weight to help him in his, “hybrid” role with the defense. As of the second week of OTA’s Moore has been lining up at outside linebacker and has also been in a four-point stance as a defensive end in the 49ers 4-3 alignment. His combination of size and speed has also been utilized on the punt team.
I don't know if it's accurate to say he is being groomed as a poor man's Justin Smith. However, Smith has been lining up an awful lot at outside linebacker, and Mike Nolan has discussed the plan to move Smith back and forth between defensive end and outside linebacker. Smith is a more natural fit at the end position, but is athletic enough to make a big impact at outside linebacker. The question is how Jay Moore perform in a similar role? Going into the OTAs I would have guessed Smith would spend most of his time at DE and mix in some OLB, while Moore would be the opposite. Now, Smith could very well be the starting OLB leaving Moore, TBC and Parys Haralson battling for playing time behind him and Lawson.
However, back to the bubble battle. I think the only reason it's even a little questionable if Moore will make the roster is because of all the time Smith is getting at outside linebacker. However, while contracts can certainly be voided, I don't see why you'd give Moore a 4-year deal if you didn't think he could make some sort of impact. One could argue for a linebacker like Roderick Green or Dennis Haley since they're both only two years older than Moore. However, I think Moore brings a little more upside to the table as far as the hybrid role he could fill. Part of it is my own irrational bias towards Moore. Either way, it could make for an interesting battle through training camp. While I think Moore is relatively safe to make the roster, I think Green and Haley are two of the primary guys he's battling for a spot.
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