Projecting the 49ers 53-man roster #2
Two months ago we ran a little exercise of projecting the 53-man roster. Since that time, enough has changed to allow us the chance to revise our projections. If you've had a chance to check out Mike Sandos NFC West blog, he went through each team and gave roster analysis at all of the units (since updated with some of the 49ers injury and roster moves). Feel free to throw out any disagreements you have with some of my projections. I've bolded and underlined additions and will mention subtractions down below.
Offense
QB (3): Alex Smith, Shaun Hill, J.T. O'Sullivan
RB (3): Frank Gore, DeShaun Foster, Michael Robinson
FB (2): Moran Norris, Zak Keasey
WR (5): Isaac Bruce, Bryant Johnson, Arnaz Battle, Jason Hill, Josh Morgan
TE (3): Vernon Davis, Delanie Walker, Billy Bajema
LT (2): Joe Staley, Barry Sims
LG (2): Adam Snyder, Tony Wragge
C (2): Eric Heitmann, Cody Wallace
RG (2): David Baas, Chilo Rachal
RT (1): Jonas Jennings
Defense
DE (4): Isaac Sopoaga, Justin Smith, Kentwan Balmer, Ray McDonald
DT (2): Aubrayo Franklin, Ronald Fields
OLB (3): Manny Lawson, Tully Banta-Cain, Parys Haralson
ILB (5): Patrick Willis, Jeff Ulbrich, Dontarrious Thomas, Takeo Spikes, Larry Grant
CB (6): Nate Clements, Walt Harris, Shawntae Spencer, Tarell Brown, Donald Strickland, Reggie Smith
FS (2): Mark Roman, Dashon Goldson
SS (2): Michael Lewis, Keith Lewis
Special Teams
K: Joe Nedney
P: Andy Lee
LS: Brian Jennings
KR/PR: Allen Rossum
Changes
I made three changes, and only one of them is my own judgment call. Damane Duckett was placed on injured reserve and Sims is looking like a sure bet to make the team. Spikes is clearly in to replace Brandon Moore, so no surprises there.
The only "big change" I made was to plug in Zak Keasey and take off Ashley Lelie. It sounds like Lelie might miss another week, which puts him that much further behind. Couple that with the continued emergence of Josh Morgan and Lelie has to be considered on thin ice. Keasey has received a lot of playing time with the first team offense and got into quite a bit of action on Friday. The other option is keeping Keasey and dumping Moran Norris. I'm curious what people think about the fullback situation, even if it isn't the most glamorous of positions.
The Bubble
As roster spots become more secure, the questions becomes who remains on the bubble? Jay Moore made some plays (including a sack) last Friday and definitely helped himself. At the same time, Mike Nolan specifically said that while he'd done some positive things, he wasn't going to get bumped up because he still had areas to improve. While Tully Banta-Cain looked solid, I could certainly see him battling Moore and Roderick Green for a roster spot. However, I think TBC is the likely winner in that battle. I'm curious if Moore would eventually find himself on the practice squad.
I think Ashley Lelie is not necessarily on the bubble, so much as in some kind of purgatory. If he doesn't get healthy I don't see how he doesn't get cut. Josh Morgan certainly has room to improve, but if he keeps it up at this pace he's certainly not going to lose his spot to Lelie. A final addition to the bubble would be Louis Holmes. It sounds like he's been really impressing folks, although it's an uphill battle for him to make the 53-man roster.
Alright, anybody I'm overlooking or over-rating? I'm pretty sure most of us are praying for a whole lot of answers this Saturday against Green Bay. While there are bubble players, the questions are more related to the depth chart of the existing roster. A guy like Moore or Holmes will definitely need to step up their game Saturday night.
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49ers Training Camp Day 3: Nolan Quotes
The 49ers wrapped up their third day of practice today. Apparently the original plan was to have a morning and afternoon practice, but Mike Nolan decided to cancel the afternoon practice. The team starts practicing in pads tomorrow, so it sounds like a chance to give everybody a little rest before then.
On current injury issues
"Arnaz Battle is nursing a little bit of a hamstring that kind of bothers him somewhat. He might take fewer reps at times, although he didn’t today. But someone like Ashley Lelie, naturally that gives someone else the opportunity to take some of those reps so it’d be important for him to get back. He should be back in a few days."
"Walt Harris was held out of practice just because that’s the way we’re doing it. Just like we’ve done the last two years with him: one a day. That is the case with certain players. Jonas Jennings is one of those and Walt Harris, Isaac Bruce, Arnaz Battle – those are the four that come to mind. Joe Staley should be in at the middle or end of the week. We’ll see how it keeps going, but it will not be tomorrow. Aubrayo Franklin should be in the next day or two. [Damane] Duckett will be a few days. Michael [Robinson] has got a strained knee, and they’ll look at it when they go inside . . . it just looks like a strain.”
On the WR battle
"There are a few established guys and a couple I can speak of right away: naturally Isaac Bruce and Arnaz Battle. [Bryant Johnson] might be in that group but, at the same time, he’s in a new situation and a new offense, and it’s important for him to stay in the competition as far as doing everything he can to get better.”
On whether Battle and Bruce are considered the "starters," with Johnson the #3
“No, I would consider all three of them. I would just talk about a three-wide situation because that’s definitely the case. We’re trying to get our best out on the field, so they may be part of the best 11 as it looks right now when you compare them to a fullback offense or a tight end offense.”
On Josh Morgan
“He’s caught a lot of balls, so he has made a good impression. He’s done a very good job, and he’s working hard. He needs to continue to do those things not only on the field but off the field as far as taking care of his body . . . It would be nice if he factors in because he’s certainly done a very nice job for three days and five practices.”
On whether they'll keep 6 receivers on the 53-man roster
“No, I would hope for at least four. Five would be reasonable, but six would mean that we’ve got a decent core of guys. So, I was hoping for guys to show up and then we’d have six, but I wouldn’t go that far today.”
On whether Tony Wragge and Chilo Rachal are battling for a starter role or backup role
“You know, at this point, if everybody’s healthy, it will be a long shot for one of them [to start over David Baas]. But they keep getting better. I’d like for one of them to prove me wrong. You get your expectations too high on a rookie and you’ve either got a bad football team or you’re getting ready to be bad.”
MY THOUGHTS (Fooch, not Nolan)
It sounds like Josh Morgan is making quite an impact on the coaching staff. Maiocco and Barrows indicated back in June that Morgan looked impressive in OTAs. If Ashley Lelie can't get healthy, it wouldn't surprise me in the least to see Morgan get a roster spot over Lelie. Considering the team has 3 solid receivers already, it would not be like cutting your top receiver by any stretch. Lelie continues to frustrate. He's out for several days and that's just not going to help him, especially considering he was in the dog house most of last season.
As for the battle at right guard, Nolan makes a good point about getting high expectations for a rookie. Even if Rachal isn't able to step up, Wragge has been a decent offensive lineman when called upon. And, as previously discussed, even if Wragge or Rachal doesn't take the starting job, they can work to providing some excellent depth.
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The 49ers Anti-Starting Lineup
Last season I signed up for text message updates from the 49ers and I have to say, some of the time I'm receiving them before seeing anything online. Being in the slow days of June, not a whole lot is going on so not too many messages. However, early yesterday afternoon I learned that the 49ers had successfully claimed QB Kyle Wright off waivers from the Vikings and waived QB Drew Olson.
Considering the quarterbacks already in camp, I'd be shocked if Wright was on the roster at the end of August. At the same time, Wright could be a prime candidate for the practice squad. Drew Olson actually spent a small part of the season on the practice squad. In the meantime, the claim of Wright has inspired me. The 49ers currently have 81 players on their roster, including unsigned draft picks. Just for sh$#s and giggles I thought I'd put together the "worst starting lineup possible." All of these players are certainly world class athletes, but many of them are not starter quality.
OFFENSE
QB: Kyle Wright - He was ok for the U last season but definitely the worst option.
RB: Michael Robinson - Robinson brings a lot to the table, but I'm convinced Thomas Clayton is a better pure running back. We're not factoring in potential special teams contributions either.
WR: Dominque Ziegler & Jerard Rabb - I actually like most of the 49ers less wide receivers, especially Robert Jordan. Ziegler has struggled with injuries problems and Rabb was the 1A banana at Boise State in 2006 (he was the guy who caught the lateral and tied the game).
TE: Cooper Wallace - At least JJ Finley is a rookie and put up better college numbers. Wallace has been in the NFL a couple years and hasn't made a big impact yet. I'd imagine he's coming to the end of the road pretty soon.
OT: Damane Duckett & Alan Reuber - Duckett is a pet project of Nolan and considering he's never actually played in a game as a tackle. Reuber has been around since 2004 and has seen scattered action during that time.
C: Cody Wallace - Not exactly an inspired pick. I'm tempted to just see Wallace starting over Heitmann, but this is more a default pick since the 49ers only have a pair of centers.
OG: Brian De La Puente & Jeb Terry - Terry has been around the league for a few years and seen some action mostly on special teams. De La Puente is a rookie out of Cal and I wouldn't mind seeing him on the practice squad.
DEFENSE
DE: Atiyyah Ellison & Louis Holmes - Ellison joins the running theme of practice squad bodies on this squad. Louis Holmes is an undrafted free agent, so it's certainly too early to tell what he brings to the table.
DT: Walter Curry - LaJuan Ramsey was battling for this spot, but Ramsey has actually registered real NFL statistics. Curry was an undrafted free agent in 2005 and has bounced from practice squads to NFL Europe and back.
OLB: Roderick Green & Parys Haralson - The linebacker positions show you the deth the 49ers have. Green and Haralson are probably not starting caliber (at least for the 49ers), but they provide quality depth
ILB: Dennis Haley & Larry Grant - As seen in the outside linebackers, inside linebacker would also be a strength of this particular team. Grant is a favorite of mine, so we'll see how he looks in training camp.
CB: Markus Curry & Marcus Hudson - Curry has bounced around practice squads since 2005 and I'd imagine he'd be an early cut in training camp. The second CB spot was tough. Tarell Brown brings way too much upside and Strickland gets a pass thanks to his huge defensive play against the Cardinals. Reggie Smith is too green to be considered here so that leaves "veteran" Marcus Hudson.
FS: Lewis Baker - He's an undrafted free agent with some potential, but I certainly don't see sticking Mark Roman or Dashon Goldson in this spot.
SS: DJ Parker - Similar to Baker above, I don't see sticking Michael Lewis or Keith Lewis in this spot.
There's a back-up punter but that would just be ridiculous to talk about. Of course considering I just did an analysis of the bottom end of the roster pool, maybe I should have included Ricky Schmitt. I'd imagine this team would probably go 0-16. Although, I definitely think this would make for an impressive college team. So, would this team be able to win at the NFL level? Considering we're playing Miami this year, it's entirely possible 1-15 is a better bet.
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Just for the heck of it: 49ers 2009 free agents
In the Delanie Walker signing post, MM threw out the players who will be free agents after 2009. Obviously a million things will change between now and then and there is little to no way we can predict what will happen at that point. However, it's much more fun randomly speculating about things over which we have absolutely no control. Some are restricted free agents, although I'm not 100% sure about the restricted/unrestricted status of some of them. The entire list is at the bottom, but I thought I'd hit some of the more interesting ones. The 49ers have done a good job lately in signing the young talent to longer deals. On this list, aside from Bryant Johnson, I'm not sure if any of them warrant long term deals for now.
Billy Bajema: Bajema is a blocking tight end who is not exactly what you'd call a pass catcher. Delanie Walker has been impressing Mike Martz, but Bajema brings the blocking element Walker lacks. I don't see Bajema returning when you can probably find a replacement in the draft.
Damane Duckett: While he seems to be a "coach's project," Duckett is an interesting case. It's entirely possible the signing of Barry Sims means Duckett doesn't make the roster this year. Even if he does it will be as a backup and barring injury, I don't know how much of an opportunity he'll get to play behind Joe Staley. Of course I also don't know who else would be interested in a converted defensive lineman who hasn't gotten all that much playing time.
DeShaun Foster: I could definitely see this as a one and done year for Foster. If he can put together a solid year behind a really good running back like Gore, he would definitely get some quality offers. He just needs to show he can stay healthy and be relatively productive. A solid yards per carry could help him cash in.
Bryant Johnson: According to MM, "There is no question Johnson is hungry to prove he's an elite wideout. Johnson said he wants to put together a good season and sign a long-term extension with the 49ers." If Johnson does take a step up and prove himself to be a quality receiver, we'll see how quick he is to sign an extension when teams are throwing piles of money at him.
Eric Heitmann: I'd imagine the 49ers will let him walk. They have some options for the future, which makes Heitmann potentially expendable. Tony Wragge is a restricted free agent and unless somebody was willing to give up picks and a big contract for him, I'd imagine the 49ers could retain him pretty easily. Cody Wallace would seem to be the center of the future, so it's a matter of working him in to the position. Or maybe Heitmann signs a short deal to groom Wallace? No matter what he won't be getting a ton of money from the 49ers.
Ronald Fields: If the 49ers stick with the 3-4, Fields has his work cut out for him if he plans on sticking around. He's a defensive tackle who either needs to improve his game in the middle, or gain some ability and become a defensive end. He hasn't done a whole lot up to this point and the 49ers have brought in some additional young bodies so we'll see how this year plays out.
Ashley Lelie: After spending most of last season in just about everybody's doghouse, Lelie thinks he's learned enough to be able to make some solid contributions in 2008. The 49ers and Mike Martz will need every wide receiver to step up and make things happen. However, unless Lelie blows people away, the 49ers have enough young potential to take their chances with another cheap veteran in free agency who might have a little more upside.
Signed through 2008: TE Billy Bajema, T Damane Duckett, DL Atiyyah Ellison, DL Ronald Fields, RB DeShaun Foster, OLB Roderick Green, C Eric Heitmann, WR Bryant Johnson, FB Zak Keasey, WR Ashley Lelie, QB J.T. O'Sullivan, RS Allen Rossum, CB Donald Strickland, G Tony Wragge.
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Barry Sims signs with the 49ers: Impact?
For those who missed it from earlier, the 49ers won the every exciting and popular Barry Sims sweepstakes, outlasting the Rams, Patriots and Ravens. Sims signed a two year deal, although financial terms were not revealed. In deciding on the 49ers, it sounds like it was a combination of locale, $$$ and playing time:
"What maybe tips it a little bit is the money is a little bit better and you don't have to move to play here," said Vierra, who declined to reveal terms of the deal. "All I can tell you is he had a good feel in San Francisco."
Sims previously played for the Raiders and had a home in San Ramon I believe, so not having to relocate probably helped. He'll compete with Jonas Jennings at right tackle, but he has the flexibility to play both tackle positions, making him an extremely valuable asset off the bench.
53-man roster
The question now is how this affects everybody else. While it's probably not a 100% lock, I'd imagine Sims is a pretty likely candidate for the 53-man roster. I had indicated in the 53-man projection post that if the 49ers signed Sims, Damane Duckett would be the likely candidate to get axed. Of course Duckett seems to be a pet project of the coaching staff, which might work out in his favor. If they went with Sims OR Duckett, the team would carry 9 offensive lineman into the regular season. One reason to go with just Sims is his availability as a right and left tackle. Any thoughts on who is out of luck with the Sims signing?
Chilo Rachal
After being drafted as a guard, word was that the coaching staff was going to move Rachal to right tackle in large part due to lack of depth. Now that there is a bit more depth, I'm curious if they still try and get Rachal some time at tackle. It'd be nice if he could get a little time at both tackle and guard. A versatile offensive lineman is a valuable commodity and considering how young he is, Rachal has time to develop both guard and tackle skills.
Jonas Jennings
Jennings is immensely talented, but unfortunately quite injury-prone. If Sims has a good camp, this could very well be the end of Jonas Jennings as a 49er. He has never been guaranteed a spot in 2008 and this gives the 49ers some more options. Cutting Jennings could open up a spot for one of the other young options in camp, whether it be Joe Toledo, Alan Reuber, or Damane Duckett. Of course, if Jennings is solid in camp and can stay healthy, that's kind of a moot point.
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49ers at Right Tackle: Question or Answer?
While the battle for who will be quarterback rages, the right tackle position has become something else entirely. Assuming everyone is healthy, Joe Staley would be at left tackle and Jonas Jennings would be at right tackle. Jennings is excused from the OTAs so health is not an issue yet. However, in his absence, one time 49ers guard (for about 2 week) Chilo Rachal is getting a crack at right tackle for the first time since he was in high school. Additionally, the 49ers signed Alan Reuber, a journeyman tackle who has bounced around the league. While the Reuber signing may not make an impact once the regular season starts, it has gotten me thinking about this often forgotten position.
Jonas Jennings came to the 49ers amidst a decent amount of fanfare and a sizable contract. He has subsequently proven to be talented and very injury prone. When his 2008 option was picked up, the most interesting line was that he would be competing for a starting job and could still conceivably be cut. He's dealt with what appears to be some important family matters and while we certainly feel for him, it's entirely possible Jennings is either gone or benched at some point soon.
This has opened the door for the guard we thought we drafted. Chilo Rachal instead gets converted into a tackle and all of a sudden he's gone from competing with Dave Baas at right guard to competing with incumbent Jonas Jennings at tackle. Throw in Damane Duckett and Alan Reuber and you've got a whole mess of bodies out there. According to Nolan:
Head coach Mike Nolan said he was concerned about the overall unit. "We do need to add some depth there," he said. He figures he has "seven or eight" proven offensive linemen. "Last year, it was nine. Maybe that was a false sense of security."
The question becomes what will be the result at right tackle? Considering the overall lack of depth, I think we can count that in the "Keep Jonas Jennings" column. As I'm not all that knowledgeable about some of the nuances of the various offensive line positions, I turn to 49ers o-line coach George Warhop for guidance, followed by Rachal:
At tackle, Rachal has to learn to play "in space," that is, without being surrounded by teammates as he was at guard. "One thing he's got going for him is he's extremely tough," Warhop said. "He's a very smart player." Rachal's new assignments "make sense to him. He just has to get sound technically." Rachal said he played some tackle at USC in practice but not in a game. "It's not a big adjustment at all," he said. "After the first four plays (Monday), it pretty much came back to me." Asked if the position switch was a nod to the fact Jennings has missed 27 games over his three years with the team, Warhop said, "I just think you can't have enough tackles, regardless of Jonas' history in terms of injuries." I've thrown up a poll to see what people think about the future at right tackle. The "Never" option basically means you think either Rachal is a bust or Rachal goes back to right guard and somebody else eventually replaces Jennings. In reality this is probably a guess at best. However, I think this is an interesting position battle to watch going forward. While we want everyone to stay healthy, if Rachal played Lou Gehrig to Jennings' Wally Pipp, it might not be the worst thing in the world long term.
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