There's under 30 hours until kickoff (34+ thanks to the blackout) and we're getting a better idea of who we'll see tomorrow and who will be in street clothes.  I thought I'd take a look at the injured players and the impact it will have tomorrow and going forward.

Michael Robinson - This is definitely not surprising at all.  Robinson is not expected back until the regular season, maaaaaybe the last preseason game.  He's looking at more of a special teams role with the addition of DeShaun Foster but will still get time in some offensive formations.  His absence likely means more carries for 2007 preseason MVP Thomas Clayton.  Of course preseason MVP has absolutely no value, other than an apparent ticket to the practice squad.

David Baas - Another non-surprise.  Tony Wragge appears to taken control of the position ahead of Chilo Rachal.  If Wragge looks good in the preseason, I'm curious what happens when Baas is healthy.  We'll also see the likes of Jeb Terry and former Cal guard Brian De La Puente getting some reps in the second half.

Bryant Johnson and Ashley Lelie - Johnson tweaked his hamstring in the morning practice against the Raiders.  It sounds like he was performing pretty well up to that point so let's hope it's a short term issue.  As for Lelie, well we've discussed his issues at length.  In addition, Isaac Bruce is a game-time decision.  If he does play I would imagine it would only be for a series or two.  The absence of these receivers means more reps for the likes of Josh Morgan, Jason Hill and Dominique Zeigler, which could help all of their chances at more playing time.

Mark Roman - Apparently Roman was scheduled to wear the defensive radio receiver, but with his injury, Michael Lewis will be the guy.  Roman's absence means more time for Dashon Goldson.  He's been a ballhawk in practice, so let's see if he can transfer that over to game situations.

Lewis Baker - Baker is a long shot to make the roster and this thigh bruise is certainly not helping his chances.  He'd apparently been playing pretty well, so it's a shame to see this happen.  This means more playing time for DJ Parker and probably extra time for Keith Lewis as the 49ers are a bit low at safety for this game.

It sounds like there will be random updates on 49ers training camp throughout the day.  As I come across information I'll add it to this post.  Feel free to discuss anything about training camp or otherwise that interests you.  And if you come across interesting training camp links throw them out there.  Consider this a combined running diary (updated less frequently than the draft one) and link dump.  So go to town.

Some early PUP news.  David Baas will start the season on the physically unable to perform (PUP) list.  He can come off the list when he passes a physical.  The general info is that he'll be back at the very end of the preseason.

Aubrayo Franklin has a calf injury that looks likely to lead to PUP placement.  Again, once he passes a physical he'll come off and it should be much sooner than Baas.

Joe Staley is not practicing today due to an infected bug bite on his foot.  Not the best way to start things out.

AM Practice
Nothing wildly over the top took place in the morning but as always there is plenty to infer from the participants:

The defensive lineman in the 3-4 were Isaac Sopoaga, Ronald Fields and Ray McDonald.  The linebackers were Justin Smith, Manny Lawson, Jeff Ulbrich and Patrick Willis.  This continues the trend of Smith getting a lot of time at linebacker.  I hope McDonald gets a lot of reps with the first team defensive line once the preseason games start.

On offense, Damane Duckett filled in for the bug-bitten Joe Staley and Tony Wragge got the first team snaps at right guard.  Once again, Zak Keasey is getting the majority of the snaps at fullback, although the two tight end set has been more popular.  I'm really curious what will happen with the fullback position in general and Norris in particular in the Martz offense.  Keasey is a special teams standout so maybe the 49ers figure they can save a roster spot by keeping him over Norris.

Jonas Jennings has apparently looked really good in drills.  Of course we all know he's supremely talented.  It's the injuries and personal issues that always get in the way.  If the team could get a FULL season from Jonas Jennings the o-line would be so much better for it.

______________________
Sources
Chrissy Mauck @ 49ers Home Page

Matt Maiocco

Matt Barrows

Training camp starts tomorrow for the 49ers.  That much everybody knows.  What will be the end result nobody really knows.  Accordingly, I thought we'd take a look at the possible best and worst case scenarios for the 49ers.  The plan is to look at them now and then again at the end of training camp when injuries have occurred or been recovered from. 

I had thought about considering injuries, but the worst case scenario could then result in injuries to half the starters.  So, instead the closest I'll come to injuries is certain starters "wearing down" from overuse.  Normally I'm not a really negative person, but I think it's useful to consider the extremes in this case.  Additionally, when I say extremes I'm not saying 16-0 and 0-16.  I'm not predicting starting QB in the Pro Bowl for Alex Smith or 1,800 receiving yards from Bryant Johnson.  Rather these are "realistic" best and worst case scenarios based on the past and thoughts about the future.

Best Case Scenario
While I know plenty of folks are on the Shaun Hill bandwagon, the best case for the 49ers has to involve Alex Smith taking the next step.  If Shaun Hill steps up and takes the starting job that would be a close second.  However, given the investment in and expectations of Alex Smith, the absolute best case scenario is his continued evolution as the starter.

Smith seemed to be making some progress in 2006, so this would involve him taking a step up from that season, as opposed to 2007.  This would involve about 3,500 passing yards (he had 2,890 in 2006) and getting above 60% in completion percentage.  These are numbers that would put him in the top 10-15 QBs in the league.

Frank Gore would bounce back from a relatively sub-par 2007 to finish with 2,000+ combined yards (1,500+ in 2007, 2,170+ in 2006).  Bryant Johnson steps up with 70+ receptions and the 49ers finally have a 1,000+ yard receiver.   At the same time, Vernon Davis takes the next step to 70+ receptions and over 1,000 yards as well.  Finally, after a step back last season, the offensive line gels and keeps Smith off his butt most of the time.  While I'd hope for Chilo Rachal to step up into the right guard role, he settles in as a solid sub and David Baas holds down the job for one season.

On defense, Patrick Willis sees his tackle total go down, but more because the rest of the defense has improved.  Manny Lawson bounces back and the combination of Tully Banta-Cain, Jay Moore, Parys Haralson and some Justin Smith creates a somewhat viable pass rush.  The secondary's statistics improve because of this pass rush and the 49ers defense finishes in the top 10.

Best Case Record: 11-5, division champion.  While I'm not expecting this by any means, I think if things break the 49ers way and players develop like some of us hope, this is not out of the realm of possibility.  The 49ers face a tough schedule outside of the division but there are some upset possibilities.  11-5 can happen with upsets of the Eagles and Redskins and sweeps of the Cardinals OR the Rams.

Worst Case Scenario
Neither Alex Smith or Shaun Hill steps up and J.T. O'Sullivan proves to be the career backup that we expect.  If Smith and Hill both proved mediocre at best, the 49ers would be in the worst possible situation and I'd expect Mike Nolan would be out the door, possibly before the season is over.  The team would realize they need to draft, trade for or sign a new QB of the future and would have wasted the last four seasons and I'd imagine 49ers would be just a little bit frustrated.

Frank Gore could still be decent in a 49ers worst case scenario but I think he wears down over the course of the season and finishes with 900 or so rushing yards, but an increase in receiving yards because none of the receivers are getting open.  So he still finishes with 1,500 combined yards, but they're not "good yards."  The wide receivers struggle as Bryant Johnson will clearly never be more than a backup and Isaac Bruce hits the wall that 35 year old NFL players tend to hit.  Ashley Lelie is cut before the end of September and Jason Hill struggles in learning the NFL game.  Finally, the offensive line does not gel as Jonas Jennings continues to have personal issues.  David Baas is not fully recovered from his pec muscle tear and Chilo Rachal and Tony Wragge are not the answer yet.

On defense, Patrick Willis has an even higher tackle total than last season because the rest of the defense just plain stinks.  The pass rush continues to be non-existent in part because Manny Lawson is slow to recover from his injuries.  Walt Harris hits the same wall as Isaac Bruce and the 49ers are forced to give more playing time to rookie Reggie Smith and second year man Tarell Brown.  Clearly neither is prepared for this situation.

Worst Case Record: 3-13, Nolan is canned and somebody has strangled Mike Martz.  This would actually involve the 49ers going 0-8 on the road and 1-5 in the division.  Of course, they would still beat the Detroit Lions!

The 49ers open training camp at the end of this week and we'll finally start to get some answers to the numerous burning questions facing the 49ers.  If you ask the mainstream media, the 49ers training camp questions boil down to learning Mike Martz's offense, the QB battle and, oh yea, the QB battle.

We all realize that there are a variety of battles to consider.  Some of them are pretty obvious, while others are a little more subtle.  Post-draft minicamp and the OTAs are done and while not a lot has been answered, the picture is starting to clear up.  I had considered titling this something to do with coming down the stretch, but there is too much training camp for us to already be coming down the stretch.  So here are my thoughts on the various battles and who the leader is after the first turn.

QB
Leader at the first turn: Alex Smith
We'll just get this out of the way.  Alex Smith is the more mechanically and fundamentally sound QB so it's natural that he would be the leader going into training camp.  Throw in the biggest contract and it makes the answer even easier.  Once we get into games, we'll see how things play out.

Ted Linebacker
Leader at the first turn: Jeff Ulbrich
Until recently this seemed like a 3-horse race between Jeff Ulbrich, Dontarrious Thomas and my boy Larry Grant.  Well, Mike Nolan and Scot McCloughan had a conference call with reporters yesterday and some interesting news came out.  According to them, Ulbrich has a clear handle on the position, but it is in competition with Larry Grant and Brandon Moore.  Apparently Thomas has been moved to the backup Mike position behind Patrick Willis.  It sounds to me like Thomas will end up in a super-sub kind of role.  It's also possible he's struggling picking up the defense and they figure he could do less damage backing up Willis.  Thoughts?

Right Guard
Leader at the first turn: David Baas (if you ask Nolan)
In the conference call, Nolan said the 49ers fully expected Baas to be ready in time for the regular season and step into the starting role.  Training camp however will see a battle between Tony Wragge and Chilo Rachal.  This leaves a lot of questions on the table, if Wragge or Rachal clicks with the rest of the offensive line.  Matt Barrows made mention of this last week and it is certainly something to consider.  On the plus side, having multiple guys playing well is certainly good for depth.  On the minus side, the offensive line is built on chemistry and cohesion.  You don't want to be bumping guys around throughout the game.  Looking at the 3 guys, Baas is only 26, Rachal 22 and Wragge 28.  So age really isn't an issue.  Of course, while it's all just rumor-mongering, throw in the highly speculative but still potential return of Larry Allen and it creates all sorts of confusion.  Larry Allen aside, the injury to Baas leaves things in limbo.  We'll have an answer as to who is ahead on the depth chart between Wragge and Rachal.  However, unless Baas has a setback or has a miraculous recovery in the next week or two, right guard will remain a question mark.

3rd/Nickel Cornerback
Leader at the first turn: Shawntae Spencer
Surprisingly there has been very little talk about this position battle.  Obviously the national media could care less, but even among local media things are quiet.  Barrows briefly mentioned the position in relation to Walt Harris's eventual successor.  The battle comes down to Spencer, Tarell Brown and Reggie Smith.  Brown got a little playing time last season but clearly he's still got a lot to learn.  Back during the draft, Scouts Inc felt Reggie Smith could step right into the 49ers sub packages.  He can play corner and safety so he certainly brings some versatility.  Of all the positional battles, this one could yield the most for team depth.  I'd expect Spencer to be the guy coming out of camp (if he's healthy), but I think Brown will see a lot more playing time from last year and Smith will get a nice chunk of time.  The 49ers play some receiver heavy teams this year so cornerback depth will be huge.  Furthermore, if the pass rush is weak and the corners are crazy-busy, the more quality guys they can rotate in the better.

Stick with these for conversation for now.  I'll have another post late this afternoon later tonight discussing the likes of right outside linebacker, wide receiver and free safety.

Well speak of the devil.  Just as I post about why first and second round draft picks haven't been signing, the 49ers go out and come to terms with their second round pick, Chilo Rachal.

The most interesting thing is the fact that they refer to him as tackle and guard.  Rachal was a guard at USC, where he didn't allow a sack in 21 games.  However, during June's organized training activities, Rachal spent his time at tackle.  The team was worried about depth issues and wanted him to get some time there.  Since then, the 49ers have signed Barry Sims to compete with Jonas Jennings for a starting spot, and at worst be the backup to both Jennings and Joe Staley.

So what does this mean?  I honestly don't know.  Jennings has his injury history and Barry Sims is no spring chicken.  I'm curious to see where they line up Rachal in training camp.  I'd prefer he just learn one position as well as possible, but if he can develop the flexibility to play both guard and tackle, that only increases his value.

Now that Sims is signed, I'd imagine Rachal will compete primarily with David Baas, who is recovering from a torn pectoral.  Matt Barrows had some updated info on Baas:

The questions, then, are when will Baas be back? And will his absence allow Rachal, assuming he's at right guard, to usurp the position? I'm told that Baas is progressing nicely from his injury. He's out of his sling and he's been able to do some light work in the weight room. He is expected to go on the physically unable to perform (PUP) list when players have their physicals next week. He likely will miss all of the preseason but the team expects him back for the regular season. Baas has the added concern of losing upper body strength while he is kept from fully working out in the weight room.

Players never want to lose a starting spot due to injury, but the offensive line is certainly unique in the need for chemistry among the five guys there.  Barrows makes a good point when he asks what happens if Rachal is starting at one of the guard positions and forms solid chemistry with the rest of the line.  The negative would be forcing Baas back into the situation and having a discombobulated line trying to get back into rhythm.  Of course, this all depends on Rachal stepping up and taking the bull by the horns.  Let's hope that happens and he just slots right into a starting spot.