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Vernon Davis

#85 / Tight End / San Francisco 49ers

6-3

250

Jan 31, 1984

Maryland

Receiving Kickoff Returns Punt Returns
G Rec Yds Y/G AVG Lng TD KR YDS AVG Lng TD PR Yds Avg Lng TD
3 5 87 0 17.4 37 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Nolan and JTO on 49ers-Eagles

Both Nolan and J.T. O'Sullivan spoke with the media earlier today and addressed some of the issues the offense will face on Sunday.  When I posted Nolan's post-game comments, one issue you guys mentioned was the lack of discussion about the offense.  So, this is certainly somewhat timely.  Normally I roll out Nolan first, but given the criticisms of JTO I thought it was better to go with him first.

J.T. O'SULLIVAN
On Asante Samuel: "You have to understand that you’re going against a good secondary across the board. It’s a veteran group. It’s a lot of guys that can make plays. Him in particular: everybody’s kind of aware of how he got there and that sort of thing. But it’s something that we’re not going to…we’re aware of where there best players are and conscious of it, but we’re not going to not do what we do, if that answers your question. Everybody in this league is pretty good. There are definitely elite players and he’s one of them. So we’re aware of it, but we’re still going to…we’re not going to close off one side of the field and say, ‘We’re not going to do this.’ We’re going to play our game, and we understand that he’s a very good player. We’re going to have to raise our level."

On whether the defenses have done anything different to lead to 5 INTs in 2 weeks: "I don’t think so. Do you want me to answer the question of why I think there are more picks in the last two weeks? Is that what you’re…?"

On whether defenses are guessing the primary receiver and taking him away: "No. I think I do a pretty good job of understanding what the reads are, checking the ball down and things like that. It’s just a matter of protecting the ball, being conscious of the fact that obviously turnovers are bad but I’m not going to become trigger-shy and start to question my judgment. If I see something, I’m going to throw it to the open guy."

On the difficulty of getting Vernon Davis incorporated into the offense: "I don’t know if I’m the right guy to answer that question." (Fooch: Interesting response)

On his on-field relationship with the Duke: "I think Vernon is an absolute pro. Nobody works harder out here. The last couple weeks we’ve been staying after and I’ve been getting a better feel for him just the last couple weeks. But I’ve had a good feel for him. I don’t know how you can not have a good feel for someone who is that athletic and that fast down the field. We’re just going to keep trying to get him involved as much as we can."


Mike Nolan after the jump...

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49ers wide receivers and J.T. O'Sullivan

I'm posting this in part in response to the Roy Williams on the Block FanPost, but more because of the general offensive issues that seem to be plaguing the team.  On Sunday, the 49ers had three touchdown drives, capped by touchdown passes from J.T. O'Sullivan to Frank Gore and twice to Isaac Bruce.  However, most of the rest of the game saw balls overthrown, underthrown and dropped by receivers.

It's fitting that Gore and Bruce made the three touchdown catches because they have been our most consistent weapons to date.  Isaac Bruce may be slowing with age, but he can still ran great routes and get himself open when need be.  Frank Gore continues to be a dual running/receiving threat and I thought his touchdown grab on Sunday was a pretty great catch considering he's a running back and was covered rather well.

The question is the rest of the receiving corp.  As pointed out in the game thread, the announcers thought the offense would improve over the course of the season as the quarterback and wide receivers got more and more on the same page.  The problem with that is sometimes it appears as though the receivers actually are on the same page, but the cosistency is a problem. 

Arnaz Battle had his huge game two Sundays ago.  Bryant Johnson has not had a huge game but makes some solid contributions at times.  We won't get into Vernon Davis because that's just turning into a clusterf#%k of epic proportions.  But looking at Johnson and Battle, what really is the issue?  In that Roy Williams diary, sfgfan made a good point when he said "A WR only disappears if the QB doesn’t see them, they’re not in the right place at the right time, or if they don’t create enough separation. I think Johnson and Battle are problem falling victim to the latter two more than the first."

I agree with that because even though JTO is getting run around his interceptions have come when he's had time to stare down some of those guys.  If guys aren't in the right place at the right time, I'd imagine that would go towards the color guys argument that the passing game will improve over time.  Is that true, or would people argue our receivers are just not getting separation?

I still think our receiving corps is good enough as is.  Of course adding Roy Williams wouldn't exactly hurt the offense.  Williams spent two years in a Martz offense so I'd imagine he could pick it back up quickly enough.  However, I also don't think we want to be giving up multiple draft picks for a guy who's a free agent after this year.  Even with a contract extension I rarely think trading multiple draft picks is a good idea (see Stokes, J.J.).

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Patriots 30-49ers 21: Frustrations are bubbling...

I just got back from Candlestick Park and frustration is probably the best word to describe how I feel.  I feel frustrated because this team shows signs of putting it together, and follows that with serious regression.  They'll put together a great offensive drive and then follow it with multiple 3 and outs.  They'll get pressure on Matt Cassel and bring him down, and then they'll follow that with Cassel having all damn day to pass the ball.  They'll make a key stop on second or third down, only to have a stupid penalty called.

I try to look at the positives after a game, and while there were positive signs today, they were follow by too many negatives.

The Defense
I'm willing to forgive the Moss bomb early because he's still an athletic freak and these things happen no matter what defense you're running.  My problem is with the lack of adjustment in this bend but don't break defense.  The theory behind a bend but don't break is to give up some first downs, give up some field goals and once in a while a touchdown, but in the end make stops more often that not.  In practice, the 49ers are struggling with the whole stopping offenses issue. 

As I was watching it seemed like the Patriots were getting first downs at will.  Cassel struggled early on but once he realized the defense was giving him a 10-15 yard cushion he picked them apart like a seasoned veteran.  It felt like the 49ers were practically running a prevent defense in the way the Patriots picked up first downs in the latter two thirds of the game.  Even though the Patriots did not have a high yards per carry, their running game still seemed wildly effective.

In just looking at the statistics, one might try and argue the pass rush was finally effective, sacking Cassel 5 times.  That person would be wrong.  The pass rush was all or nothing today as either Cassel was quickly sacked or he had plenty of time to throw the ball.  J.T. O'Sullivan was only sacked once, but it seemed like he was scrambling around in the pocket half the time.  I don't know this was planned or not, but the Patriots defense consistently forced JTO to his left side so that he had no chance to plant his feet after bootlegging out.  That was not the case with Matt Cassel and he made the quick throws he needed to.  The QB hurries and knockdowns are just as important as the sacks.

J.T. O'Sullivan
Oh JTO, what are we going to do with you? Considering he only threw for 130 yards, it was a very active day for fearless leader.  He had several ugly overthrows, he had some dropped passes and he seemed to scramble to his left every other play.  High risk/high reward is fine but things got out of hand today.  He's got 7 touchdowns and 6 interceptions on the season, to go with 20 sacks.  I think the best description of him is a poor man's Brett Favre.  A VERY poor man.  Favre would make an incredibly bad decision but followed it up with 2 or 3 huge plays.  JTO, on the other hand, will make one huge play and follow it up with 2 or 3 bad decisions.  Not quite the ratio we'd like to see.

I think you'd be a blind fool to argue the offense isn't better than it was last year.  It's not pretty in the slightest, but it is better.  I didn't hear the broadcast, but in the game thread Cruithear mentioned that the CBS crew said that the passing game would look better as they get more time together.  Clearly it's better than last year, but there are definitely some timing issues that need to be worked out.  I thought it would be a roller coaster with JTO and it truly has been so far.

Mike Martz
It is completely true that one minute he seems like a genius and the next minute you're pulling your hair out in frustration.  Clearly he's made the offense better and made this a more competitive team.  However, several areas continue to drive me batty.  First, Frank Gore.  Frank the Tank touched the ball 16 teams and had one incomplete pass thrown his way.  Considering how close this game was for the first three quarters, that's simply unacceptable.  When you're averaging close to 5 yards per touch (16 touches/78 yards), you simply have to do more with him.  I understand you're not going to run Gore on a 3rd and 4.  However, a short screen pass to him probably has a higher percentage of success than a 15 yard toss to our newest entrant as hands of ston, Vernon Davis.

My second issue, look at the drive chart.  J.T. O'Sullivan led the 49ers on 13 drives today.  TWO of those drives were for more than 30 yards.   ONE drive lasted more than 10 plays, and that drive was the only over 5 plays.  The 49ers finished the game having possessed the ball for 20:08, while the Patriots had the ball for 39:52.  It was definitely week 1 all over again, as several of you mentioned in the game thread.  I think this goes somewhat back to Frank Gore, but better use of the running game and more short completions will get that clock ticking a little bit more.

Isaac Bruce
I wanted to end this tantrum on a positive note.  Isaac Bruuuuuuuuuce is probably running a close second to Frank Gore as 49ers offensive MVP so far.  Bruce finished with 3 catches for 49 yards and 2 touchdowns.  After his monster game against the Seahawks, he has settled in as a nice, solid receiving option.  This is clearly not Jerry Rice ending his career in Seattle or Johnny Unitas in his last year as a Charger.  Isaac Bruce may not be the receiver he used to be, but he is bringing some serious game to the 49ers.  I never thought I'd root for a former Ram, but Bruce is the kind of quiet professional that anybody can root for.

Looking Forward
As some of you pointed out in the game thread, this division is still up for grabs.  The 49ers sit one game back of the Cardinals.  Of coure the next two weeks could bring some serious misery as the 49ers host a likely angry Philadelphia Eagles squad and then travel to the Meadowlands to face a bad-ass New York Giants squad. 

The Seahawks are no gimme even in their current form, so the 49ers better be careful or they could go into the bye week at 2-6.  In reality one win might be all they get before the bye.  Two wins would be absolutely amazing, but they have to at least get one.  I won't say the season is on the line in the next three weeks, but this is as important a 3-game stretch as any.

Oh, and thanks again to everybody who took part in the thread today.  Even in my absence the commentary has been fantastic.  We finished with 28 commenters and 656 comments.  49erLou and Cruithear lead the way with 89 and 86 comments respectively.  The full list is after the jump.

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49ers offense: Keeping J.T. O'Sullivan Alive 101

We're four weeks into the 2008 NFL Season and 49ers QB J.T. O'Sullivan has been sacked 19 times.  That puts him on pace for 76 sacks, which would tie David Carr's single season record.  That also happened in Carr's rookie season and while he had a couple decent seasons, he never really recovered from the beating he took.

The Patriots have struggled a bit, but even I was surprised by how poorly their defense performed against the Dolphins.  Even with the offense losing Tom Brady, that defense has a whole host of playmakers.  Coming off such a poor performance, I think it's safe to say the hooded one will have his defense chomping at the bit and looking for blood.

Accordingly, the 49ers offense is going to have figure out a way to protect J.T. O'Sullivan and keep him on his feet more often.  I realize the Martz offense is high risk high reward and the QB is going to be sacked fairly often, but the rate so far has been ridiculous.  Jon Kitna was sacked 63 and 51 times in the two season of Martz but that was the Lions who struggled to develop a running game and didn't exactly have thre greatest offensive line in the world.

The problems so far seem to be threefold: 1) The offensive line struggles to provide JTO with time to pass, 2) When the line gives him time, JTO will hold onto the ball too long, and 3) Some of the play-calling leaves a little something to be desired.

I think the first two are areas that are both self-explanatory and I don't think much can be added to the conversation.  As far as the line is concerned there are certainly some replacement options available.  We've got some potential fill-ins and could shake things up but I'm not sure how much of a difference it would make.  As for JTO, well clearly he needs to learn to either throw away the ball or gallop along for a few free yards.  Pretty straightforward.

The play-calling is what I want to address.  We've been over and over and over the Vernon Davis problems.  What I don't understand is why Martz doesn't run more screen passes and short, quick passes to him?  Those passes drastically increase the chances that he won't drop the ball and he has proven time and again that if he gets the ball in his hands he will more often than not make some thing out of it.  If I had every game on tape I could probably point to numerous times when he gets the quick screen or quick hitches and turns up field for a first down or more.  I realize many would prefer Vernon Davis be running deep and making plays that way, but I really don't understand why they don't run specific plays just to get the ball in his hands.  Am I the only one?  Is there a reasonable explanation?

The second issue in play-calling is Frank Gore.  This past Sunday, Frank Gore ran the ball or had a pass thrown in his direction (both complete and incomplete) a total of 10 times in the first half.  In one situation, Gore ran on first and second down for 9 yards setting up a 3rd and 1.  The next play was an incomplete pass to Isaac Bruce.  I realize you don't want to force the running game if it isn't there, but if you don't think Gore can get you 1 yard from Frank Gore, there is clearly a problem.

I was never a fan of Mike Tice's "Randy Ratio" up in Minnesota.  However, in the case of Frank Gore, I think you have to come up with a minimum number of times you want him to touch the ball and then do whatever it takes to reach and exceed that number.  He's a bull of a running back who can shimmy through the smallest of holes.  A struggling offensive line will not completely hold him back.

I realize much of what I'm stating would qualify as "the obvious."  But if it's so obvious, wouldn't the coaches realize this too?  The Patriots defense presents numerous dangers, particularly coming off an embarrassing performance.  The 49ers will have to adjust to keep JTO on his feet and making plays.  All I ask is for more quick stuff to Davis and some kind of Gore ration (we can call it the "Frank Factor").

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49ers-Saints: Matchups to watch

The final injury reports were released, and depending on which of the questionable people are playing, the matchups will be rather intriguing.

49ers Pass Rush vs. Saints offensive line
The Saints will be without starting left guard Jamar Nesbit, center Jonathan Goodwin is questionable and left tackle Jammal Brown is probable after being limited in practice all week.  For the 49ers, the pass rushing is starting to gain some traction as we've seen the likes of Parys Haralson and Roderick Green step up and make plays.  Justin Smith will continue to be moved all around the field to create matchup havoc.  And of course the impact of Manny Lawson is unknown at this point since we have no idea what defense the 49ers will roll out.  I'd say that more 3-4/4-3 than nickel/dime would make sense, but after the Seahawks game, who knows what will happen.

Either way, I think this is one area the 49ers may have the advantage.  If Drew Brees gets enough time he'll absolutely pick apart the 49ers defense.  Once again, I'd let the corners play man-to-man and come with an extra blitzer to create havoc in the backfield.

Whomever v. Reggie Bush
Although it's only a guess, I think it's safe to say somebody will be spying Reggie Bush the entire game.  Bush has absolutely shredded the 49ers in his short career, but the 49ers might finally have the talent to contain him...at least somewhat.  The two primary options for defending Bush would be either sticking a DB on him all game, or going with Manny Lawson for the first ten yards and a DB thereafter.

Personally, I think this is a perfect opportunity to unleash Dashon Goldson in a one-on-one situation.  He's listed as questionable this week but it sounds like he'll be able to play.  The other options is running a cross between zone and man on Bush.  Lawson would cover him in the first five or ten yards and then hands him off to a DB for the rest of the field.  The problem with that is confusion could result leaving just enough of a hole for Bush to run wild.  This is the most intriguing matchup of the day in my opinion.

49ers Receivers vs. Saints secondary
Bryant Johnson is questionable for Sunday and I'd imagine is a game-time decision.  Randall Gay is also questionable due to a hamstring injury and has been limited by the injury since week 1.  If Gay is out Mike McKenzie gets the start opposite Tracy Porter. 

If Johnson is sitting for the 49ers, I'm honestly not sure who would start opposite Isaac Bruce.  Arnaz Battle has settled in as the #3 receiver, so it's entirely reasonable to see Jason Hill or Josh Morgan starting opposite Bruce.  Hill has been getting more time on special teams, but he showed some impressive skills in the preseason.  I'd like to see either of the two get a little more playing time, but for my own personal benefit I've got Josh Morgan starting in one fantasy league where week 4 byes are killing me.  A quality game from Morgan would certainly be all the more beneficial.

One other brief point on the passing game is the effectiveness of Vernon Davis.  There has been plenty of discussion about Vernon Davis and his issues with catching the ball.  However, folks seem to agree that Davis's speed has been sufficient to at least spread out the defense and open up holes underneath.  The counter would be that eventually they might let Davis roam a little more free, but I don't see that happening anytime soon.  He makes big plays on the short passes so I'd imagine there is still the worry about what he could do catching balls up top.  Hopefully we'll see Davis explode tomorrow at the Superdome, but as long as he's being covered, hopefully the underneath remains open.

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49ers-Seahawks Matchups: Who has the advantage

Last week we did a breakdown of matchups with Revenge of the Birds.  Unfortunately, Field Gulls is a bit busy this week so we won't be able to compare our thoughts.  I still like the idea of comparing matchups, so I'm going to go ahead with it on my own.  Due to injuries things have changed, but there are still plenty of significant matchups to consider.

Match-Up #1: Seahawks pass rush vs. 49ers pass protection
Advantage: Seahawks (slightly) - I used the phrase pass protection because this includes running backs stepping up to block.  The Seahawks linebacking trio of Julian Peterson, Lofa Tatupu and Leroy Hill are quite impressive.  While they are solid dropping into coverage, Peterson and Tatupu are bad-ass pass rushers as well.  Patrick Kerney is tough enough on the line, but the Seahawks will also welcome back Rocky Bernard, the man who began the injury saga of Alex Smith.  If the 49ers aren't careful, one of those guys could very well take JTO's head off and think nothing of it.

After a strong preseason, the 49ers offensive line struggled a bit against the Cardinals.  JTO was sacked 4 times and the pocket collapsed several other times.  If they perform the same way this week in pass protection, it could be an ugly day.  It will be important to establish the running game, but if the offensive line isn't stopping the speed rush, it won't matter all that much.

Match-Up #2: Seahawks secondary vs. 49ers receivers
Advantage: Even - The Seahawks bring a solid secondary in Marcus Trufant and Kelly Jennings.  Nickel back Jordan Babineaux returns after a one-game suspension, which definitely gives them more depth.  The 49ers wide receivers were not exactly spectacular last week, but the talent is definitely there to make plays.  While Isaac Bruce was blanketed last week, Bryant Johnson was able to get open a few times to make some solid gains.  Throw in Arnaz Battle not getting a reception until the second half and you'd think the wide receivers were completely useless.

However, I remain convinced that the 49ers have enough weapons to make plays against this secondary.  Vernon Davis is getting a chance to line up wide, which adds a potent weapon.  There were a couple of 3rd and shorts last week where I wished they ran a wide receiver screen with him.  On this quick plays, he's a virtual guarantee of 3 or 4 yards simply because of his size.

I leave this as an even matchup because the potential is there for both units to be rather solid.  Either side could have a big day and it wouldn't surprise me.

Match-Up #3: Seahawks Running Game vs. 49ers rush defense
Advantage: 49ers - I think I've made it very clear my thoughts on the Seahawks running game.  It's not very good.  Now, Maurice Morris will be out and Justin Forsett was released, leaving a running back duo of Julius Jones and T.J. Duckett.  Combining two guys have been relative underachievers for their careers does not create one good running back that will overachieve (I used to be an accountant, I know how this math will work out).

We'll discuss the Seahawks passing game more tomorrow, but with a relative weak passing attack, it puts more of an onus on the running game, which I don't think they can reach.  The 49ers linebacking corp provides solid backdoor protection to the defensive line.  The 49ers linebackers have a lot of speed which should be sufficient to cut off the outside running lanes.  The primary weakness of the 49ers defense is Aubrayo Franklin.  If he gets shoved around it opens up holes in the middle of the field.  Fortunately tackling machine Patrick Willis and a combination of Takeo Spikes and Jeff Ulbrich can back him up there.  The 49ers held the Cardinals to 2.8 yards per carry, primarily because they were busy being shredded through the air.  The Seahawks might average more than 2.8 yards per carry but I'd be surprised if they successfully mounted much of an attack.  The league average is 4.0 (which they reached last week) and I don't see anything better than that.

We'll have some more matchups tomorrow....

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Cardinals 23 - 49ers 13: This just in, turnovers hurt

There are two types of heart-breaking losses.  There is the last second stunning end to a game, something Cardinals fans endured last season when Tully Banta-Cain pounced on a Kurt Warner end zone fumble.  Then there's the slow Chinese water-torture type of death, as we saw today.  The former is like ripping off a band-aid, the latter just eats you up for a good chunk of a game.

This game can be fully explained by two statistics: turnovers and time of possession.  The 49ers had 4 fumbles and 1 interception.  Arizona finished with 37:05 to the 49ers 22:55 in time of possession  and held onto the ball for roughly 3/4 of the 2nd half.  It got so bad that before the two under 2 minute drives in the 4th quarter, the 49ers had the ball for ONE DRIVE IN THE SECOND HALF!

One thing to keep in mind (not to poor salt on this) is that the final score actually could have been a lot worse.  Twice the Cardinals ran the ball inside the five yard line, only to be moved back 15 yards due to personal fouls.  Instead of 14 points on those two drives, they came away with 3 points.

While it's hard to talk about anything good, for these initial recaps I want to at least get the good, the bad and the ugly down so we have a more complete picture.

The Good
Frank Gore - When he was actually on the field he was making plays befitting a Mike Martz running back.  He was a great escape valve for JTO and he looked lean and mean bouncing off tacklers.  I expect a big year from him no matter how the 49ers do record-wise.

Parys Haralson/Justin Smith - Haralson finished the game with 2.5 sacks and was bringing pressure for the entire first half. Justin Smith had a half a sack but was getting in Warner's face the entire first half.  However, the Cardinals adjusted in the second half bringing in more protection and the pass rush immediately died.  I know you don't want to give up the big play, but an occasional corner and safety blitz might have kept the Cardinals more honest

Bryant Johnson - He didn't have a huge game, but he got himself open and held on to the ball.  Considering how much time he missed in training camp, I think he performed quite well.  His chemistry with O'Sullivan should only improve.

Vernon Davis - He made some solid catches, but equally important, he had some really nice blocks and no mental mistakes, a big problem for him the last two seasons.

The Bad
J.T. O'Sullivan - I won't put him in the ugly category because he did make some things happen on offense.  However, he had trouble when the pocket started to collapse.  He made a few nice dump-offs but his three turnovers killed (even if pass protection caused one of them).  He probably showed more bad than good considering the offense only managed 1 touchdown on a Gore run, but he did show some things that have me mildly optimistic.

Offensive line - At times they got a lot of push and opened up big holes for Frank Gore.  However, 4 sacks and two quarterback fumbles are not good results.  Joe Staley was pushed around for good chunks of the game and clearly is still learning the left tackle position.  Hopefully we'll see some steady improvement in the coming weeks.

The Ugly
The Secondary
- Even when the 49ers were getting some pass rush early in the second quarter, the secondary could not maintain coverage, particularly on Anquan Boldin who finished with 8 receptions for 82 yards all in the second half.  There were several third and long situations where the 49ers simply couldn't make plays.  You let a team convert multiple 3rd and long situations and you're definitely going to end up on the wrong side of the score.

Turnovers - Everything that could go wrong on offense in the early part of the game did.  Throw in the later Takeo Spikes fumble on the short kick and it was a miserable day for the 49ers.  You turn over the ball 5 times, you're probably not going to win the game.  You turn it over 5 times and force 0 turnovers yourself and you're definitely NOT going to win the game.

Timeouts/Game Management - The one continuous complaint at this site (aside from QB play) is the time management issue.  With 1:01 left in the first half and Arizona deep in their own territory, the 49ers made a stop on 3rd down to set up a 4th and 12 punt.  Unfortunately, due to the lack of timeouts, Arizona ran the clock down to 10 seconds and the 49ers could do nothing to end the half.  One of those timeouts was blown on a pretty stupid challenge.  I'm not saying they would have scored with more time left, but they certainly would have had more of an opportunity.

Next week
Even though it's only week two, the 49ers face a huge showdown up in Seattle next week.  Due to injuries and suspensions, the Seahawks could be struggling and the 49ers have to take advantage of that.  I really hope the team is able to bounce back from this loss and not let it bog them down next week.  It'll be tough to win on the road, but it would be a huge momentum builder and help in any eventual tiebreaks.

Thanks to everybody who took part in the discussion, even as the knife was being twisted in the second half.  We had 34 users take part with our highest (besides me) being shlecko at 73 comments.  Due to the length of the list, I'm posting it after the jump.

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State of the Union: 49ers in 2008

Up to this point we have discussed just about everything under the sun when it comes to the San Francisco 49ers.  We've beaten into the ground everything from the quarterback competition to the Ted linebacker position and everything in between.  During this entire time I never really even thought about doing one broad overview of the team.  We've predicted wins and losses based on the schedule and we've looked at their various opponents.  However, no post has brought it all together.  In doing this post, I think I've officially written my longest post at Niners Nation, so a good chunk of it will be after the jump.

In the President's State of the Union address, you often hear, "The state of our union is strong."  You won't hear such proclamations.  However, I am willing to say that the state of the union could turn out to be stronger than many of us anticipated.  When asked how I feel about the 49ers in 2008 (because clearly the world wants to know), I use the term cautious optimism

Looking at reader comments and the media around the nation, there are plenty of folks who are not feeling good about the 49ers chances in 2008.  For example, Bill Simmons posted his NFL preview column and he was pretty clear in thinking the 49ers will suck this season.  Now, clearly what the Sports Guy thinks about the 49ers is not on my radar, but I think it's indicative of the national belief. 

The 49ers were one of the cinderella picks heading into last season (although the Sports Guy didn't buy into the hype).  Then they crashed and burned and I think the ugliness of last season is carrying over into this season until they prove otherwise, which is a perfectly reasonable expectation.  Throw in a circus of a qb competition between the likes of J.T. O'Sullivan, Alex Smith and Shaun Hill and it's understandable why non-fans would think the 49ers are a joke.

So why am I cautiously optimistic?  Aside from being a diehard 49ers fan, I think there are several reasons why this team could be a solid football team.  I'll qualify solid by saying a very good season to me would be 9-7.  While parts of this team are playoff caliber, there are still enough question marks to keep me from going too far. 

We know that Patrick Willis is a beast, we know that Frank Gore is the man and we know that Isaac Bruce will probably put up solid but unspectacular numbers.  And I'd say we know Vernon Davis will find himself flagged for a whole variety of penalties.  So what don't we know yet?

How will this whole JTO thing pan out?
This is the million dollar question.  More of the season's potential is riding on this question than anything else.  In one of his media sessions Scot McCloughan stated that if Alex Smith is still the backup at season's end, he will not be back with the 49ers in 2009.  His salary escalates too much to keep him around.  So, will Alex Smith start for the 49ers again?  I'll go out on a bit of a limb and say that barring injury, no and that the Alex Smith era is over and done.

While most people don't like cocky individuals, I think the quarterback position requires a person who can forget his mistakes and look to the next play.  Certainly you don't want to repeat mistakes, but you also don't want them weighing on your mind constantly.  JTO brings a swagger that I am starting to enjoy.  Even for a guy who has treked around the NFL and NFL Europe, he seems to have this belief that he can be a great quarterback in this league.  I often wonder if Alex Smith has that kind of confidence.

I realize there are future contract issues to consider, but for the here and now in 2008, I think JTO will be a successful quarterback.  I'm not predicting Pro Bowl and MVP type great, but he will bring respect back to the 49ers QB position.  He's got the arm to make the throws and he's got just enough mobility to avoid sacks and make small things happen with his feet.  I said it before and I'll say it again, he's going to make some great plays and he'll also mix in some plays that have you shaking your head in disbelief (in a bad way).

The cautious comes into this because I'm certainly not 100% convinced of what I stated above.  The NFL has seen guys like Jake Delhomme and Kurt Warner come along and become Pro Bowl QBs.  However, the odds are certainly not in JTO's favor that he'll become the next one in that line.

Will we see a pass rush?
I don't think the pass rush will be anything spectacular in 2008.  I think Ray McDonald will take the next step in his pass-rushing evolution, but I think the pass rush will be more of a stop gap measure than a true force of nature.  And I think the 49ers defense can be successful without a great pass rush.  As long as they are creating some sort of pressure, the mere threat of a sack will be enough to force quicker throws from quarterbacks. 

The 49ers made additions and changes to the defense but I think it still remains a run-stopping defense with enough talent to contain the passing game.  Nate Clements is a #1 corner but I don't think he'll ever be confused with Champ Bailey.  Part of that is the lack of flash, but as long as Clements can contain that #1 receiver, who needs sizzle when you got the steak?

Earlier in the offseason I made a prediction that the 49ers defense would be at the very worst in the top half of the league.  I still believe that will happen.  The addition of Justin Smith and the return of Manny Lawson will obviously be huge.  However, Tully Banta-Cain coming off the bench instead of starting and the addition of Takeo Spikes could be equally important, at least to the linebacking corp.  TBC was at his best in New England coming off the bench.  When they started predicting 10 sacks and the like for him last year (I believe it was somebody at ESPN), I thought that was a bit premature.  He won't have huge stats this season, but I think the intangibles will be important.

More after the jump, including my locked-in record prediction for 2008, for which you can mock me endlessly later in the year (and feel free to throw out your official prediciton of record)...

Continue reading this post »

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ESPN 2008 Predictions and the 49ers

ESPN ran a feature yesterday with predictions for the upcoming season.  Dallas is the overwhelming favorite to win the NFC, while San Diego, New England and Indianapolis are the AFC favorites.  Personally, I see now way in hell the Chargers win the AFC as long as Norv Turner is in charge.  I'm still amazed he won multiple playoff games last year.

However, let's look at their predictions as related to the 49ers.  One of the great powers of the Internet is the fact that this information will live on for quite some time.  If somebody makes a completely assinine prediction, we'll be able to mock them for the foreseeable future.  Which brings us to ESPN's predictions about the 49ers upcoming season.

Analyst Division Finish
Jeff Chadiha 4th
John Clayton 3rd
Tim Graham 4th
Jeremy Green 4th
Paul Kuharsky 3rd
Matt Mosley 4th
Mike Sando 3rd
Kevin Seifert 4th
James Walker 4th
Seth Wickersham 3rd
Bill Williamson 3rd
Matt Williamson 4th
Pat Yasinskas 3rd

One positive prediction to come out of this?  Seth Wickersham predicts Patrick Willis will win Defensive Player of the Year.  Not quite as big as predicting a 49ers division title, but I'll take it for now.

I realize the 49ers are not exactly high on the national media's radar.  People know Martz is in town and hear about J.T. O'Sullivan and that's about it.  Are the Arizona Cardinals clearly that much better than the 49ers?  Maybe I'm wearing blinders, but I think they certainly have their share of holes.  I'm certainly not saying the 49ers are clearly going to win the division title, but is second place all that unlikely?

One final tidbit from the ESPN preview.  Scouts Inc. came up with every team's favorite play.  For the 49ers, based on the Mike Martz offense, the play is the Play-Action Deep In.  This play has Isaac Bruce lined up to the left running a go route, while Vernon Davis is lined up as the tight end and runs a skinny post, splitting the safeties.  Arnaz Battle is lined up in the left slot and runs a go route as well, while Bryant Johnson runs a pattern over the middle of the field.  A play-action with Frank Gore later and J.T. O'Sullivan finds Johnson across the middle for a nice gain.  Now that Johnson is on the field again, keep an eye out for this tonight against San Diego.

So, anywyas, hopefully in a few months we'll be revisiting this and laughing so hard our sides hurt.

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Niners Nation at 49ers Training Camp

So first a little background.  Last week I received an email from Jason Jenkins, the 49ers Director of PR Operations.  He mentioned seeing the site and wanted to see if I could make it down to training camp on Saturday.  Naturally, I was very much down for that.  So, I took Cal Train down and spent Saturday afternoon at 4949 Centennial Boulevard.

I made it down to practice a couple times last year, but they were pretty limited and I was just sort of on my own.  This time, I had a PR person with me who was very open to discussing the team and where things stood.  While PR folks can certainly throw some spin, Jason seemed to be genuinely psyched for the season.  Also, it was a closed practice so there were only a few of us there.  As the interview below indicates I was with a couple fellows from 49erswebzone.com.  So it was the two of them, myself and Jason with practice all to ourselves.

Before hitting the practice field we got a tour of the facilities.  The locker room is rather large and with the 81 (and now 75) men on the roster, a bunch of temporary lockers are set up for all the rookies and training camp bodies not likely to make the roster.  This picture shows the temporary lockers for the youngsters.  This was shortly after the five cuts were announced and I kinda wish I had gotten a chance to take a picture of Kyle Wright's locker.  Just to show the transition and whatnot.

Rookie_lockers_medium

The first locker I saw coming in was the memorial locker to Thomas Herrion.  Herrion was the offensive lineman who collapsed and died after an exhibition game wiht the Broncos.  The 49ers have kept Herrion's locker as it was when he passed away.  I definitely wanted a shot of this.

Herrionlocker_medium

After the tour we went out to practice.  Unfortunately I could not take pictures at practice because the team was implementing their offensive and defensive game plans for Friday's game against the Chargers.  Apparently in the recent past, some clown video-taped one of these types of practices and had it up on the 49ers Message Board.  It was not up for very long.

Josh Morgan was out (I think the illness that has kept him out this week as well).  I was disappointed as I wanted a chance to see him on the practice field.  However, I saw plenty of other things that excited me. 

Frank Gore was involved in some running and passing plays and he is looking unbelievable.  There was mention of him shedding some weight, which I noticed on tv and on the practice field.  He was flying around the field and squeezing through some really tiny holes.  A lot of publications are down on Gore this year, in part because I think they're down on the 49ers o-line.  However, I think the line will surprise folks and Gore is due for a monster season.

Additionally, and I know this is stating the obvious, but Vernon Davis is just a physical beast.  The team was running a red zone drill and Davis ran a corner pattern.  I think it was O'Sullivan (not 100% sure) who threw up a pass and Davis went up over the corner covering him to make the catch.  He looked like he was a solid head length plus above whomever was trying to cover him.  I realize some people have labeled him a workout or practice warrior, but I honestly think there's just too much talent and ability for him not to pan out as a great pass-catching tight end.

One thing I did really enjoy watching was some passing drills with Mike Martz looking over things.  O'Sullivan, Hill and Smith all took reps with the receivers with no defense.  Martz was taking the entire time, whether it be to the receiver or the quarterbacks.  He'd emphasize a specific location on the field or a harder cut a receiver needed to make.  After a QB would overthrow or underthrow a receiver, Martz would take the QB aside to discuss the mistake.  At the same time he threw out encouragement on solid performances.  It's hard to get a read on a guy standing across the field and yelling, but I liked what I saw.  I got the proverbial "good vibe."  I'm sure this will be discussed in the future depending on the outcome of the offense's season.

The same could be said of Mike Nolan during team drills.  You can see how much he loves the defensive side of the ball.  After a play would be run he was out giving some hands-on coaching to a defensive player.  Usually it was with the defensive backs, particularly the younger ones.  He must have called out DJ Parker's name five or six times in the space of five or ten minutes.

After practice and the interview with Scot McCloughan, I definitely had to get pictures with the Super Bowl trophies.  The first is just me and the second is me with Jason Jenkins.

Daveandtrophies_medium

Daveandjason_medium

I really want to thank Jason for reaching out to me and providing this opportunity.  A lot of my fellow SB Nation Football writers have had a difficult time getting in touch with their respective teams.  A lot of professional sports franchises are not what you'd call "blogger-friendly."  In reaching out to me and to some of the other 49ers blogs, they're clearly much more accepting of the proverbial "alternative media."  Thanks again to the 49ers.

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