While it'sonly the second preseason game of the season, it's also already the second game of the preseason.  The first team offense and defense will get a half of play under the belt.  The Packers finished last season 17th against the pass and 8th against the run.  Not spectacular against the pass, but Al Harris and Charles Woodson are definitely nothing to sneeze at.  Suffice to say, the 49ers offense will face a stiff challenge by ground and by air. 

On the other hand, the Packers offense was 5th in the air and 9th on the ground.  I'm not sure how the passing game will translate under Aaron Rodgers, but Ryan Grant is back running the ball, looking to build on an impressive 2007.  After getting thrashed by the Raiders running game, the 49ers will be looking to bounce back and put up a slightly stiffer front (that's what she said).  Although, I just checked Acme Packing Company, and it looks like Grant might be out.  If so, even more reason to do a better job against the run.

August 26 is the first cut-down date (to 75 players) and some positional battles are heating up, both for roster spots and for depth chart rotation.

Josh Morgan - We've talked plenty about the rookie receiver from Virginia Tech.  However, this is a particularly interesting matchup because of the corners he'll be facing.  Due to injuries, Morgan will be in the starting lineup.  This means a chance to square off against Charles Woodson or Al Harris.  This will be a big test for the rookie (as well as J.T. O'Sullivan).  You never want to get too excited after just one good performance in the preseason.  However, if Morgan can put up a second good performance against a Pro Bowl-caliber cornerback, I think it's safe to say Fooch will be getting more excited (first ever reference to myself in the 3rd person I think).

Louis Holmes - Holmes has been getting more and more press as he seems to be impressing during practice, even getting some first team reps.  However, he now finds himself in a potential numbers crunch, competing with Tully Banta-Cain, Roderick Green and Jay Moore.  Barrows had some interesting comments about the four players:

Holmes, who has shown real promise as a pass rusher, is an obvious practice-squad candidate, but the 49ers would risk him being plucked off it by a team with room on its active roster. Banta-Cain disappointed last year with just 3.5 sacks, but he is the most versatile of the bunch and there's a sense that he'll be more effective in a reserve role just as he was in New England. Green has been perhaps the best pass rusher of this latter group. But his versatility is limited and the 49ers know (from history) there's little risk in cutting him and bringing him back midseason if need be. Moore, meanwhile, hasn't shown much of a pass rush and is still very much in learning mode when it comes to coverage duties. He is practice-squad eligible.

I would like to see Jay Moore make the roster, but I'm feeling more and more like he will end up on the practice squad.  Holmes sounds motivated to make the roster, but the numbers crunch might get in the way.  If he can make some noise against the Packers, maybe he can force the situation.

Keith Lewis - Up to this point I considered Lewis pretty secure in his roster spot.  Barrows mentioned today that he thinks one of the final defensive backs could come down to either Lewis or Marcus Hudson.  In comparing the two, Barrows said Lewis's strengths being special teams place and solid backup play at strong safety, while his main weakness is a lack of speed and versatility.  Hudson, on the other hand, has less experience but more versatility in the secondary and is showing some special teams spark.  I'm not sure how strong a performance Lewis would need to secure his spot, but it'd be interesting to see which way the 49ers go.  Lewis has always been an under the radar guy, but considering he led the team in special teams tackles in 2007, he might be worth keeping around.

The team still has the Packers game and next Thursday's matchup at Chicago (along with several more practices) before the 75-man cut down date.  The third preseason game is usually where the starters go upwards of 3 quarters, so backups need to make things happen sooner rather than later.

Two months ago we ran a little exercise of projecting the 53-man roster.  Since that time, enough has changed to allow us the chance to revise our projections.  If you've had a chance to check out Mike Sandos NFC West blog, he went through each team and gave roster analysis at all of the units (since updated with some of the 49ers injury and roster moves).  Feel free to throw out any disagreements you have with some of my projections.  I've bolded and underlined additions and will mention subtractions down below.

Offense
QB (3): Alex Smith, Shaun Hill, J.T. O'Sullivan
RB (3): Frank Gore, DeShaun Foster, Michael Robinson
FB (2): Moran Norris, Zak Keasey
WR (5): Isaac Bruce, Bryant Johnson, Arnaz Battle, Jason Hill, Josh Morgan
TE (3): Vernon Davis, Delanie Walker, Billy Bajema
LT (2): Joe Staley, Barry Sims
LG (2): Adam Snyder, Tony Wragge
C (2): Eric Heitmann, Cody Wallace
RG (2): David Baas, Chilo Rachal
RT (1): Jonas Jennings

Defense
DE (4): Isaac Sopoaga, Justin Smith, Kentwan Balmer, Ray McDonald
DT (2): Aubrayo Franklin, Ronald Fields
OLB (3): Manny Lawson, Tully Banta-Cain, Parys Haralson
ILB (5): Patrick Willis, Jeff Ulbrich, Dontarrious Thomas, Takeo Spikes, Larry Grant
CB (6): Nate Clements, Walt Harris, Shawntae Spencer, Tarell Brown, Donald Strickland, Reggie Smith
FS (2): Mark Roman, Dashon Goldson
SS (2): Michael Lewis, Keith Lewis

Special Teams
K: Joe Nedney
P: Andy Lee
LS: Brian Jennings
KR/PR: Allen Rossum

Changes
I made three changes, and only one of them is my own judgment call.  Damane Duckett was placed on injured reserve and Sims is looking like a sure bet to make the team.  Spikes is clearly in to replace Brandon Moore, so no surprises there. 

The only "big change" I made was to plug in Zak Keasey and take off Ashley Lelie.  It sounds like Lelie might miss another week, which puts him that much further behind.  Couple that with the continued emergence of Josh Morgan and Lelie has to be considered on thin ice.  Keasey has received a lot of playing time with the first team offense and got into quite a bit of action on Friday.  The other option is keeping Keasey and dumping Moran Norris.  I'm curious what people think about the fullback situation, even if it isn't the most glamorous of positions.

The Bubble
As roster spots become more secure, the questions becomes who remains on the bubble?  Jay Moore made some plays (including a sack) last Friday and definitely helped himself.  At the same time, Mike Nolan specifically said that while he'd done some positive things, he wasn't going to get bumped up because he still had areas to improve.  While Tully Banta-Cain looked solid, I could certainly see him battling Moore and Roderick Green for a roster spot.  However, I think TBC is the likely winner in that battle.  I'm curious if Moore would eventually find himself on the practice squad.

I think Ashley Lelie is not necessarily on the bubble, so much as in some kind of purgatory.  If he doesn't get healthy I don't see how he doesn't get cut.  Josh Morgan certainly has room to improve, but if he keeps it up at this pace he's certainly not going to lose his spot to Lelie.  A final addition to the bubble would be Louis Holmes.  It sounds like he's been really impressing folks, although it's an uphill battle for him to make the 53-man roster.

Alright, anybody I'm overlooking or over-rating?  I'm pretty sure most of us are praying for a whole lot of answers this Saturday against Green Bay.  While there are bubble players, the questions are more related to the depth chart of the existing roster.  A guy like Moore or Holmes will definitely need to step up their game Saturday night.

Yesterday I mentioned how Dominique Zeigler had impressed folks in the early part of camp.  While that certainly doesn't meant he'll make the roster, we're always going to get excited when an underdog makes a statement.  As previously stated, every training camp sees some unknown (or just lesser known) player make some plays and makes a name for himself with the media.  This year is no different and I thought I'd take a look at some of the guys who have impressed so far.

Zak Keasey: Zak Keasey is certainly not unknown and may not even qualify as lesser known.  He's spent time on the practice squad over the last couple years and actually made appearances in 13 games, primarily on special teams but also on offense occasionally.  I mention him first because he has clearly impressed the coaching staff.  When the team has used a fullback, Keasey has seen a majority of the first-team action over previous starter Moran Norris.  Also, Mike Martz had some interesting comments when chatting with the media yesterday:

"I think Zak has a real good feel for getting through traffic and getting on linebackers and DBs as a blocker. He's unusual that way. It's kind of a lost art, if you will. He sees things and reacts to things very, very well -- very quickly. He's got such good body control, he can avoid and get into little tiny holes and get to a linebacker. It's hard to find guys who can do that. He does that very well. Mo (Moran Norris) is more of a real powerful, get-on-that-line-and-blow-them-up kind of deal. So they're different kinds of fullbacks, but they're both effective."

Considering the fact that there are not an unlimited number of roster spots, I'm curious if the team would keep both fullbacks.  Keasey brings special teams value, which is certainly a plus for him.  Throw in the fact that the fullback is not exactly the most utilized position in the Martz offense and it leaves me wondering if Moran Norris might see his time with the 49ers coming to an end.

Josh Morgan: Again, not an unknown guy, but somebody I thought was more destined for the practice squad.  I've read nothing but good things about Morgan going back to June OTAs and they continue into minicamp.  MM said about Morgan:

There is competition at the wideout spots. The competition right now is for spots on the team. As Mike Nolan said, the question is who are the five receivers? And, then, do they have a sixth who should make the squad.

My opinion: Josh Morgan makes the team. But Ashley Lelie better back in a hurry or he's going to have a difficult time making the final roster.

Morgan continues to shine. When asked what kind of impression he's making, Morgan answered, "I'm not sure -- hopefully a good ones."

He's getting a lot of reps and -- to the untrained eye -- does not appear to be doing much wrong. Seems like he has a decent grasp of the offense and he's catching most everything in sight.

I can honestly say at this point that I'd rather add Morgan to the roster and cut ties with Lelie.  Realistically, Lelie would be no more than the #4 receiver on this roster behind Bruce, Johnson and Battle and maybe ahead of Jason Hill.  All things considered I'd rather just roll the dice with Morgan as the #5 and give Hill reps as the #4 receiver.  Maybe Hill and/or Morgan don't pan out, but right now I think we all realize the limited upside of Lelie.  Consider me officially on the Morgan over Lelie bandwagon.

When I began this post I was hoping to discuss the likes of Lewis Baker, Louis Holmes and Brian De La Puente among others.  Barrows and Maiocco have pointed out that they're looked good in practice.  Unfortunately there has not been anything beyond that.  If anybody has seen or heard anything about some of the undrafted free agents, we'd all love to hear more.  Holmes and Baker are both practice squad candidates as I think the numbers game would keep them off the 53-man roster.  I'd imagine they'd have to absolutely blow up to make the roster.  And even then, they might need an injury to somebody ahead of them.

Last season I signed up for text message updates from the 49ers and I have to say, some of the time I'm receiving them before seeing anything online.  Being in the slow days of June, not a whole lot is going on so not too many messages.  However, early yesterday afternoon I learned that the 49ers had successfully claimed QB Kyle Wright off waivers from the Vikings and waived QB Drew Olson.

Considering the quarterbacks already in camp, I'd be shocked if Wright was on the roster at the end of August.  At the same time, Wright could be a prime candidate for the practice squad.  Drew Olson actually spent a small part of the season on the practice squad.  In the meantime, the claim of Wright has inspired me.  The 49ers currently have 81 players on their roster, including unsigned draft picks.  Just for sh$#s and giggles I thought I'd put together the "worst starting lineup possible."  All of these players are certainly world class athletes, but many of them are not starter quality.

OFFENSE
QB: Kyle Wright - He was ok for the U last season but definitely the worst option.
RB: Michael Robinson - Robinson brings a lot to the table, but I'm convinced Thomas Clayton is a better pure running back.  We're not factoring in potential special teams contributions either.
WR: Dominque Ziegler & Jerard Rabb - I actually like most of the 49ers less wide receivers, especially Robert Jordan.  Ziegler has struggled with injuries problems and Rabb was the 1A banana at Boise State in 2006 (he was the guy who caught the lateral and tied the game).
TE: Cooper Wallace - At least JJ Finley is a rookie and put up better college numbers.  Wallace has been in the NFL a couple years and hasn't made a big impact yet.  I'd imagine he's coming to the end of the road pretty soon.
OT: Damane Duckett & Alan Reuber - Duckett is a pet project of Nolan and considering he's never actually played in a game as a tackle.  Reuber has been around since 2004 and has seen scattered action during that time.
C: Cody Wallace - Not exactly an inspired pick.  I'm tempted to just see Wallace starting over Heitmann, but this is more a default pick since the 49ers only have a pair of centers.
OG: Brian De La Puente & Jeb Terry - Terry has been around the league for a few years and seen some action mostly on special teams.  De La Puente is a rookie out of Cal and I wouldn't mind seeing him on the practice squad.

DEFENSE
DE: Atiyyah Ellison & Louis Holmes - Ellison joins the running theme of practice squad bodies on this squad.  Louis Holmes is an undrafted free agent, so it's certainly too early to tell what he brings to the table.
DT: Walter Curry - LaJuan Ramsey was battling for this spot, but Ramsey has actually registered real NFL statistics.  Curry was an undrafted free agent in 2005 and has bounced from practice squads to NFL Europe and back.
OLB: Roderick Green & Parys Haralson - The linebacker positions show you the deth the 49ers have.  Green and Haralson are probably not starting caliber (at least for the 49ers), but they provide quality depth
ILB: Dennis Haley & Larry Grant - As seen in the outside linebackers, inside linebacker would also be a strength of this particular team.  Grant is a favorite of mine, so we'll see how he looks in training camp.
CB: Markus Curry & Marcus Hudson - Curry has bounced around practice squads since 2005 and I'd imagine he'd be an early cut in training camp.  The second CB spot was tough.  Tarell Brown brings way too much upside and Strickland gets a pass thanks to his huge defensive play against the Cardinals.  Reggie Smith is too green to be considered here so that leaves "veteran" Marcus Hudson.
FS: Lewis Baker - He's an undrafted free agent with some potential, but I certainly don't see sticking Mark Roman or Dashon Goldson in this spot.
SS: DJ Parker - Similar to Baker above, I don't see sticking Michael Lewis or Keith Lewis in this spot.

There's a back-up punter but that would just be ridiculous to talk about.  Of course considering I just did an analysis of the bottom end of the roster pool, maybe I should have included Ricky Schmitt.  I'd imagine this team would probably go 0-16.  Although, I definitely think this would make for an impressive college team.  So, would this team be able to win at the NFL level?  Considering we're playing Miami this year, it's entirely possible 1-15 is a better bet.

So last week we had some fun projecting the 49ers 53-man roster for the upcoming season.  A vast majority of the spots were easy to fill, but as we got to the last few guys in and out, things got a little dicier.  There are definitely a few guys on the bubble when it comes to filling out the roster.  So, I thought it'd be fun (or at least useful information) to try and project out potential cuts and practice squad players.  In order to do that, I did some research in the NFL Collective Bargaining Agreement on who is eligible for the practice squad.  After the jump I've included the specific rules, word-for word, but in the meantime here's the quick and dirty version. 

A player is NOT eligible for the practice squad if he one accrued season of NFL experience.  An accrued season occurs when a player is on full pay status for a total of six or more regular season games.  After two seasons on the practice squad, a player can be on it for a third year, only if his team has at least 53 players on the Active/Inactive List the entire time.  That's a little more confusing too me, so I've made some notes on some of the guys below to whom that might apply.

After listing every player I went through and sorted guys into four groups: 1) Pretty much a lock to make the 53-man roster; 2) Ineligible for the practice squad, so on the bubble of making the 53-man roster or being cut; 3) Eligible for the practice squad but somewhat of a chance of making the 53-man roster, so on the bubble of making the 53-man or practice squad; and 4) eligible for the practice squad, but slim to no chance of making the 53-man roster, so on the bubble between the practice squad and being cut.  I determined practice squad eligibility by going through player bios at the 49ers website.  Also, there were a couple guys on my projected 53-man roster that are definitely bubble guys, so I've moved them off and added them to one of the groups.  All the players listed are in no particular order.

1. 53-man/Cut
FB Zak Keasey, OT Alan Reuber, DE Melvin Oliver, LB Roderick Green, LB Dennis Haley, G Jeb Terry, DE Atiyyah Ellison, DB Marcus Hudson, DB Markus Curry, G Qasim Mitchell, QB Drew Olson, TE Cooper Wallace, DT Walter Curry.  The last three might be eligible for a 3rd year on the practice squad, but I'm not 100% sure.

2. 53-man/Practice Squad
LB Larry Grant, LB Jay Moore, WR Josh Morgan, RB Thomas Clayton, DT Joe Cohen, WR Dominique Zeigler

3. Practice Squad/Cut
WR Cam Colvin, LB Shaun Richardson, S D.J. Parker, S Lewis Baker, WR Robert Jordan, WR Jerard Rabb, G Brian De La Puente, DE Louis Holmes, G John Booker, TE J.J. Finley,  P Ricky Schmitt

If my information is correct, we have at least 17 and possible 20 guys eligible for the practice squad (depending on how Olson, Wallace and Curry fall).  As the groupings are currently set, there are 51 guys on the 53-man roster.  I removed Larry Grant and Josh Morgan to reflect their bubble status.  Damane Duckett would be in trouble if the team signs Barry Sims and he made the 53-man roster as Duckett is not eligible for the practice squad.  Other than that, I think that leaves roughly 51 guys pretty locked in to the 53-man roster (obviously not factoring in any potential injuries). 

So, the question becomes, who makes up the practice squad?  If he stays healthy, I wouldn't be surprised to see Robert Jordan stick around, as well as Shaun Richardson and/or Louis Holmes.  I'm going to say that Jay Moore bounces to the 53-man side of the bubble as my 53-man only has 3 natural outside linebackers (Lawson, TBC and Haralson).  It looks like Justin Smith will get plenty of time there but he'll be moving all over the place.  So for this exercise I see last year as like a practice squad year for Moore and will bump him into the 53-man.  I think Josh Morgan is a good bet to end up on the PS.  Thomas Clayton spent last season on the practice squad, but the signing of DeShaun Foster leaves him in a bad position, unless he can beat out Michael Robinson.  While he may be a more talented running back than Robinson, the team seems committed to turning Robinson into something of use.

In the end, the practice squad is much harder to project because you're inherently dealing with guys who are on the bubble as a whole.  Does the team want to keep some guys with a little NFL time around just in case, or do they go with young, fresh bodies?  For argument's sake I'll throw out 8 guys and wouldn't be surprised to get at least half of them wrong:

1. Josh Morgan, WR
2. Robert Jordan, WR
3. Shaun Richardson, LB
4. Louis Holmes, DE
5. Joe Cohen, DT
6. J.J. Finley, TE
7. Brian De La Puente, G
8. Thomas Clayton, RB

Continue reading this post »

One of my favorite web sites is Football Outsiders.  The sister-site of Baseball Prospectus has taken football analysis to a whole new level.  However, I realized today I hadn't visited the site in some time this offseason.  I get email updates from them and nothing of note seemed to be coming along.  Well, I did a little combing of their recent articles and found some interesting stuff I had overlooked.  So consider this a Football Outsiders link dump of sorts.

Draft Review
Shortly after the draft, FO did a review of the NFC West's drafts.  They did a nice little review of the events that ended with the 49ers picking where they were picking in the first round.  Leading up to the draft, most websites emphasized how the 49ers shot themselves in the foot in losing out on a top 10 pick.  In discussing the 2007 selection of Staley they said:

Staley started every game at right tackle for the 49ers last season, and runs to right tackle improved from 23rd in 2006 to ninth in 2007. Considering the damage that Staley’s predecessor Kwame Harris was doing to the psyche of the 49ers’ fanbase, the trade seems like at least a wash for San Francisco.

Then looking at what the 49ers did with the acquired Colts pick:

That pick, the 29th overall, and the 49ers’ own second-rounder, the 39th overall, were used to solidify the interior of the line on both sides of the ball. This is the same strategy the Kansas City Chiefs used to set everyone’s hearts aflutter, but the 49ers received much less fanfare.

We all know plenty about the early 49ers picks, so I'll throw out what FO said about some of the later guys.

Cody Wallace: "Wallace cleaned up at the Combine, leading all offensive linemen in vertical jump and broad jump. Jokes about the rarity of centers bouncing around a football field aside, that shows great explosive power in the legs; if he can launch his own body through the air, he should have no problem popping defenders backwards at the snap."

Josh Morgan: "NFL.com’s bio of Morgan is awfully frank, saying he has 'a rare combination of size and speed,' but 'he’s also plagued by rounded-off routes, weak effort as a blocker and ugly drops.'"

Larry Grant: "Grant is somewhat undersized at 235 pounds, but has great agility, placing third in the 3-cone drill and fourth in the 20-yard shuttle at the Combine. That athleticism should come in handy on passing downs and on special teams."

They wrapped up the piece with an interesting tidbit on the undrafted free agents the 49ers signed:

[Robert] Jordan is noted for his physical and mental toughness, but the durability of this thin frame must be questioned; he broke his ankle in high school, and his collarbone in college. Another interesting prospect is Louis Holmes out of Arizona, a monster of a man at 6-6, 270 pounds, who would play an enormous outside linebacker in the 49ers’ 3-4. He has also had “brushes with the law,” so he may be terrorizing on and off the field.

Special Teams and the draft
Mike Tanier used to write a column called "Too Deep Zone" for FO, as well as several other pieces every year.  Just prior to the 2008 draft, he made a change and now has a bi-weekly column titled "Walkthrough," which appears to be a random assortment of this, that and the other thing related to football and analysis.  His first Walkthrough had an interesting discussion about college players' willingness to play special teams their rookie season (and beyond in some cases).

Most teams ask midrange prospects about their special-teams willingness during pre-draft interviews. According to Rob Rang of NFL Draft Scout, coaches and execs can’t always take the answers at face value.

“Some prospects say they’re willing to play special teams or ‘do whatever it takes get onto field,’ but are then shocked when they are actually expected to do so.” Wright agrees. “Many of these guys need to swallow their pride and put their egos on the backburner. But some have a real difficult time doing that.”

Assuming they make the 53-man roster, I could see Larry Grant and Josh Morgan seeing plenty of time on special teams.  When Grant was selected in the 7th round, that was one of the primary pieces of analysis about him.  Obviously we won't have a better idea about this until training camp and preseason games.  If a guy can prove he can contribute to special teams, you never know when he might then get a shot at regular play.  It should make for an interesting camp.